Leaders of ethnic armed groups are meeting in Mae Hong Son in northwest Thailand to work out strategy and tactics in the event of a post-election attack by Burma’s military government that would end the 20-year cease-fire with the ethnic groups. The meeting started on Tuesday, according to sources.

The armed ethnic groups represented at the meeting include the Chin, Kachin, Karen, Karenni, Mon and Shan. Foreign military experts were also reportedly involved.

The ethnic armed leaders are trying to set up a central military alliance, possibly with Nai Hang Thar, the widely trusted secretary of the New Mon State Party (NMSP), as its leader, the sources said.

Apart from military matters, the potential military allies are also discussing how a new strategy aimed at toppling the military regime to replace the former decades-long policy of coexistence under terms of a cease-fire could be presented to the international community and world media.

After the election, ethnic leaders believe the new government will request cease-fire talks with ethnic groups on a one-to-one basis, but the alliance will seek to face the military government as a united front, a source close to participants at the meeting said on condition of anonymity.

The alliance could also decide to present the post-election government with an ultimatum to initiate political reform with a specific deadline or face the possibility of a coordinated attack, he said.

A source close to the NMSP said the US government had been approached regarding the ethnic issues when five US congressmen including Rep Ruppersberger (Democrat) and Rep Rohrabacher (Republican) met leaders of the armed ethnic groups in Thailand on Aug. 4 in Chiang Mai in northern Thailand. The congressmen were on a fact-finding mission regarding the armed ethnic groups along the Thai-Burmese border.

According to an NMSP document received by The Irrawaddy, the ethnic leaders asked the congressmen for military assistance and training to help defend against an expected post-election junta offensive.

A source present at the meeting said, “We told the congressmen that we are not terrorist organizations and that our military struggle is aimed only at protecting our people from falling into the brutal hands of the junta’s troops.”

Zipporah Sein, general secretary of the Karen National Union (KNU) said the meeting currently taking place in Mae Hong Son is aimed at increasing military cooperation and assistance among the ethnic groups in preparation for expected armed conflict after the election, but declined to give details saying the meeting has not concluded.

Following the 2008 Constitution that stipulates that there can only be one armed force in one nation—Sunday’s election will make the junta-written constitution legitimate—observers say there is little doubt that the junta will go on a military offensive to eliminate the insurgencies on its borders and wipe out the ethnic forces that refused to accept its Border Guard Force (BGF) plan. The plan was to incorporate the ethnic armed forces as BGF within the junta’s unified military structure.

Speaking with The Irrawaddy in Panghsang in northern Shan State, an official of United Wa State Army (UWSA) said: “We don’t want war. But we will react if one of our groups is attacked.” With an estimated 30,000 men, the UWSA is the strongest of the ethnic groups that rejected the BGF plan.

“We cannot mention detail but we are preparing a military strategy. We are also watching the election,” the official said.

Meanwhile the UWSA are providing financial assistance to all groups and military equipment to small groups close to their areas that may be targeted in a potential attack, other sources said.

“The tension between the ethnic armed groups and regime is increasing all the time,” said Burmese researcher Aung Thu Nyein, adding that this is presenting a dilemma to both the ethnic armed groups and the Burmese military government.

Sai Lao Hseng, spokesperson of the Shan State Army–South (SSA-S) said whether there will be civil war or a peaceful resolution to their disagreements depended on the new post-election Burmese government.
“We have always been ready to resolve unfinished issues by political means,” he said. “If they are prepared to use peaceful means, we are ready to cooperate.”