With monsoonal rains continuing, the worst flooding in Pakistan in 80 years is
still spreading. Pakistani relief organizations and government agencies are
stretched to the limit. Yet despite urgent appeals from the UN and other aid
organisations, the level of international aid is pitiful, even measured against
the limited assistance donated in other recent disasters. The flash floods in
several parts have already damaged country’s economy and will leave marks on the
country’s agriculture and economic growth. According to the early estimates more
than 20 million people (almost 13% of the country’s total population); including
9 million children are directly suffering. This figure does not include those
that are now indirectly bearing the burden. This is in all counts is the largest
ever water splash in the 64 years history of Pakistan. The major floods of 1973
(less than 5 million people) 1976 (5.7 million people), 1992 (10 million), 2005
(8 million) and 2010 (20 million affected people as of Aug 15) prove the point.
The enormity of the damage can be judged from the fact that 10.51 people
displaced more than 3000 dead (the actual count will be known later once the
water will recede) many deaths are likely to be unrecorded. In the last 64
years among ten biggest natural disasters in Pakistan that includes floods,
droughts, earthquakes and storms this water tragedy by far is the largest ever
disaster happened to this country.
The Swat Valley in the worst affected province—Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (formerly the
North West Frontier Province)—is cut off, trapping an estimated 500,000 people.
Most have received no relief supplies, except small quantities being transported
into the areas by foot or donkey. In other parts of the country, flooding is
threatening major cities and towns.
At the moment more than 10.5 million people are on the move on the roads of this
country looking for refuge and shelter. A very small fraction of this population
has so far found shelters in government facilities or temporary camps set-up by
NGOs and philanthropists. Majority of this displaced population is still living
in open fields and without proper shelter, food, medicines or protection. Most
of the make-shift camps are without essential services and poorly managed.
Government schools are used to camp displaced population and most of these
buildings are already in dilapidated conditions and cannot house victims for a
long time. The government and humanitarian agencies have not been able to set-up
tent facilities thus increasing risks of shocks and vulnerabilities. The food,
medicines, water, non-food items and temporary shelters provided by government,
NGOs, philanthropists and international groups are far less than the demand. It
is predicted that the trauma is still not over as more monsoon is predicted and
will add more volume of water in the river system.
It is said that the total volume of water in the Indus river water system is not
exceptionally high for the river system to absorb. The disaster happened because
of lack of attention to maintenance of river embankments, silting of river beds,
weak water protection infrastructures, massive deforestation and unplanned
settlements in riverine areas. All these factors contributed a great deal in the
on-going ordeal of the people. Level of preparedness to cope with the impending
disaster was very low. Though there are several disaster mitigation and
management systems and authorities set-up in last few years but their
performance is far below than expected standards. Ironically most of the people
that were either forced to leave houses unalarmed or with prior notice did not
know where to go for shelter, food, medicines and other basic facilities. No
government information facilities were set-up or prior arrangements were
ensured. Mass exodus from flooded cities further choked national highways and
nearby cities and towns.
Tragically the flood hit the most fertile food growing areas. Gilgit, Swat,
Charsada, Swabi, Nowshera to Larkana, Dadu and Matiari are food growing pockets
and contribute a reasonable share in country’s food and grain economy. Major
losses of crops, orchards, cattle, fodder, cotton and other major cash crops
will have a serious setback on the economy. This will create food scarcity and
insecurity for many in coming months. Some of these crops are export oriented
and country will face decline in export earnings.
Flood also caused destruction to railway networks, roads, barrages, canals,
village infrastructure and other essential facilities in the catchment areas.
Transportation of goods and people is already effected. It has also destroyed
buildings, factories, warehouses etc and closed down work in these places due to
which not only the workers will suffer but also the industries will suffer. In
coming months the government has to invest huge amount of funds and manpower in
rehabilitation of people and industries, which will cause the economy to suffer
at the national level.
The mass displacement of population will irk cities scarce resource and load
nearby towns. Though most of the people that are displaced are skilled
agriculture labor and can be adjusted as unskilled laborer in other sectors but
it the labor in agriculture sector will be scarce.
In previous years the floods damages/loss as a percentage of the total GDP value
was significant during following years. Loss as percentage of GDP value was 3.04
in 1973, 5.09 in 1976 and 2.60 in 1992. If damage due to cyclones and storm
surges were taken into account, the overall loss as a percentage of GDP would be
much higher. It may be noted that the GDP values are at constant 1985 prices.
Estimates of the effect of flood loss on the GDP are based on static absolute
figures of flood loss. The structures of the flood damage losses and their
relative weightage to total GDP have not been taken into account. However, the
estimates provide a notional indication of the impact of flood damage/loss on
the economy.
It may be mentioned that floods cause losses both to the GDP and to the capital
stock and thus hamper the growth potential of the country. Moreover, these
losses also have long-term impacts on the macro-economy. The long-term impacts
will be twofold: capital damages induce a lower GDP in subsequent years (to the
extent of investment losses); and output losses (caused during the
flood-affected year) lower incomes and possibly, reduce savings available for
financing investments.
In addition, there will be enormous social losses due to this flood, the impact
of which on the macro-economy is much more than micro-economic losses in terms
of accelerating the growth potential of the economy. However, as yet there is no
comprehensive source that provides information/analysis of possible
macro-economic impact of current flood losses.
The government was already facing widespread hostility over its proxy war on
behalf of the US against Islamist militants, and the country’s economic and
social crisis. Now the floods have wiped out large areas of crops, destroying
the livelihoods of many farmers and leading to higher food prices. As the
flooding worsens, anger and protests will inevitably spread, compounding the
crisis of a fragile regime
Despite the immense scale of the disaster, international aid is only trickling
in. As of early this week, according to the UN’s financial tracking system, the
funds committed by governments totaled less than $US45 million, with an
additional $91 million pledged.
The government has so far failed to mobilize external and domestic resources to
manage the effects. This delay will limit government ability to restore human
settlements, rehabilitate agriculture and rural economy, rebuild infrastructure,
provide safe and timely return and recovery of these people and reduce strain
from urban centres. All these will be contributing factors in multiplying shocks
of the disaster. Government credibility deficit and lack of trust of funders is
worrisome factor. The sheer size and scale of devastation requires much higher
level of support failing to which will weaken the government’s capacity to deal
with the domestic issues mainly terrorism, recession, inflation and high scale
of unemployment. It is much needed that all stakeholders including donors,
investors, humanitarian assistance organizations, aid consortiums and other
economic powers must invest in this time of crisis to avoid any undue spill over
of this situation. It is needed that government invites all key stakeholders to
a platform and develop disaster management plan with greater participation of
civil society and effectees. All emergency, relief, early recovery,
rehabilitation and resettlement efforts must be done outside the ambit of usual
government structures. Only an independent commission lead by credible
personalities can ensure greater participation, trust and optimum results of
these efforts.
In the meantime the government must demonstrate its political will to support.
It has to put these people as its first priority and put other government
agendas in the second list. So far the government has failed to show its resolve
and leadership in tackling the problem. The present disaster will also be a test
for the present political government as most effectees are also the voters of
the ruling party and rightly expecting urgent and substantive support.
Government has to cut down on its expenses, mainly non-development expenditures
and divert these resources to the much needed relief and rehabilitation of these
20 million people. Failing to which will have serious repercussions for the
country as well as present government.
Irfan Mufti