Dr Sumit Champrasit: There is much to thank Thaksin for.
One might have thought the red shirts’ demonstration of patriotism would have ended in less than a week, yet the show lives on. The villagers have concluded that, no matter what the ending, they will carry on their sufficient way of life which they have been practising and continue to help others through the same path, which helps create immunity to any social crisis, including this one. Anyhow, from the discussions with villagers comes these four possible endings to this non-fairytale of chaos:
1. Negotiation ends with a compromise solution
The issue that will make this ending unlikely is that supporters of both the government and the red shirts have power beyond the decisions of their leaders, which in turn proves that the leaders from both sides are just puppet dolls. If a compromise agreement between the red shirts and the government can be reached, such an agreement will inescapably be disappointing to some factions of both sides. Yet, there are means to justify those ends. Granted that the red shirts may have to let down their supporters by stepping down a notch, a solid agreement on parliament dissolution can still be obtained on an agreed target date. Also, the red shirts’ leaders who orchestrated this event may already have gained enough political recognition (or financial gain) from the event and may think it will not be worth it to drag on, risking that they may not be able to enjoy the received money and power in the future.
On the other hand, the Abhisit government may want to compromise as well, since Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva himself is still young and has a long road ahead of him as the potential leader of Thailand. Stepping down now may give him room and security for the long, unwinding political journey ahead.
2. Parliament’s dissolution
Since the beginning, the government, with good preparation, has launched a public warning of the red shirts’ propensity for violence; this has proven effective as the Bangkokian middle class and media got scared and began rejecting the red shirts from the start. The blood donation which resulted in an “artificial bloodshed” in front of Government House only added to the spectre of violence. But 10 days into their demonstration, and the red shirts have shown they intend no such violence. The red shirts have played their game well so far by alienating the violent and anti-monarchy group from their protest, thus making a clearer standing point since last Saturday, that their approach is a peaceful one, and that some of the problems they have been debating are real problems which the government has not done anything about.
In terms of content, the government’s approach has lacked reliability, e.g. their unproven warning of violence by the reds, and the untrue accusation that Thaksin spent 3 million baht for the reds to throw excrement in front of the prime minister’s house. Such lack of reliability has failed the public, and we see more and more Bangkokians begin to ignore government warnings and join the red shirts’ event in the evenings. Perhaps it is time for the government to change its angle and be more responsive to the daily situation.
There are three layers of opinion as far as the urban population is concerned: first, the anti-red shirts account for one-third of Bangkokians; second, the purely red shirts account approximately for another one-third; the remaining one-third are the undecided “go-with-the-flow” segment. This is in line with previous statistics that out of the 4.14 million Bangkok voters, 30% chose the Democrat Party and 26% chose the People’s Power Party (now defunct); the rest mostly did not come to cast their ballot. So, there are huge numbers of red supporters in Bangkok itself, should the red shirts be able to maintain a minimum gathering of about 20,000 people in the evenings and double or triple this number at the weekend.
If the government’s failure in tactics persists, this will leave an opportunity for the red shirts to gain in critical mass and, who knows, that may just be enough to unavoidably force the government towards a parliamentary dissolution by itself. As mentioned earlier, our prime minister also would not like to take on too much risk.
3. Red shirts slip and call it off
This ending is as probable as the preceding option - depending on which side makes the first mistake. If the red shirts call the whole thing off, it will be due to wrong-footing in their strategy. If they let emotion slip into their decisions and movements, this may lead to actions that could disturb or make it too inconvenient for the rest of the people to continue with their normal day-to-day lives. This could trigger the undecided mass to turn against them. Then and there, without the critical mass which they need, the red shirts may have to implicitly call off their protest. If such a critical mass cannot be obtained before the Songkran holidays and without a good enough strategy to keep the rural people here during the hot weather, the red shirts may have to find ways to step down eventually.
4. Another coup
This scenario is possible but difficult. I believe the army is still enduring the pain from its last coup in 2006. Though it was carried out successfully and a new government was put in place, the conflict of colour and class has persisted to this day. Evidence is clear that the coup has not removed the deep, unbearable rivalry of opposing souls. The only incident which could unavoidably trigger the army to take a stand is if the protest becomes violent and there is bloodshed, or the situation turns into an uncontrollable threat to the monarchy. At that point, the Thai people will certainly call for a rescue from their white knights.
We cannot ignore the fact that the red shirts have declared this to be their “last war”, so there is a chance for this ending to come about.
However, this coup will not be easy or end quickly like the last one, since there may be more “violent rejections” this time. The army will also need to make sure that this rivalry of colours is ended once and for all. Even so, this poses tremendous risks and damage to our country, both domestically and in the international arena.
Given all these “possible endings”, there will still not be a happy ending for all the people in our society. But this entire phenomenon has opened up some opportunities for our country, for which we must say “thank you” to Thaksin Shinawatra, the root cause of all that has come to pass:
– The majority of the population who were not accounted for in GDP, mostly the grassroots, would otherwise not have had the opportunities from the populist campaigns during Thaksin’s administration, and would not have benefited from the campaigns of the current government.
– Mr Abhisit would not have had the chance to become prime minister.
– The Democrats, who were so good at being the opposition, would not have got their chance to become the government.
– Certain ministers, whom we thought were too old or too junior for administration, or who lacked the proper qualifications, would never have got their chance to shine in the major ministries.
– The military would not have received its ample budget to renew its weapons and artillery.
– Society would not have brought up for discussion topics nobody dared talk about or which were kept under wraps; if correctly handled, these discussions may provide the wisdom for future problem-solving.
– Had Thaksin not been around, the yellow shirts would not have grown in social status and network, financially and politically.
– The red shirts leaders would not have been politically born.
Thaksin used to say on many occasions that he has “received tremendously from this country” and that he would like to “give back to his beloved country”.
If Thaksin were able to “re-think” his stance and - beyond belief - donate his 76 billion baht to the country (he would still be left with a vast sum to live on), his donation, pain and grief would serve as the “fertiliser” for the nation to grow and develop - fertiliser for the “tree of wisdom” of our nation to continue living, rather than beating each other up to no good purpose. This would be a great way to pay back his country.
If Thaksin could do this, he would not only be welcomed by all Thais, but there would surely be a monument built in his honour, declaring his “great sacrifice and forgiving soul”.