October 01, 2007—Rangoon is under siege and the crackdown on monks and activists has intensified, continuing day and night. The bloodshed in Burma raises the question: who was behind the violent crackdown and who ordered security forces to shoot Buddhist monks and innocent people?

Everyone is pointing the finger of blame at Snr-Gen Than Shwe and hardliners in the army. The commander in chief of the armed forces who once led the psychological warfare department in the army is known to be a secret mover.

Than Shwe is believed to be surrounded by hard-line army officers and ministers, and over the past two years he has reshuffled his cabinet and army, hauling his trusted people on board.

After the surprise purge of intelligence chief and prime minister Gen Khin Nyunt in October 2004, military leaders held a belated quarterly meeting in Naypyidaw, the country’s new capital, in 2006. At the meeting, Than Shwe’s hands were seen to have been active in the reshuffle.

At that meeting, the regime leader created a Bureau of Special Operations 5 (the country had previously had four BSOs) and appointed Lt-Gen Myint Swe to head the department.

Myint Swe, former head of Military Affairs Security, is known to be a Than Shwe favorite, and his appointment indicated that the junta leader wanted to pave the way for him to assume a high-ranking position in the army. BSO 5 controls the Rangoon division and Myint Swe’s appointment effectively put the Rangoon regional commander under his wing.

Than Shwe also kept his trusted army generals in the war office. For instance, Thura Shwe Mann, number three in the armed forces, is known to be close to Than Shwe and is being groomed to take over as commander-in-chief.

It was reported that during the quarterly meeting Than Shwe and his deputy, Gen Maung Aye, army chief, had reached a compromise by appointing their close associates to key positions.

For instance, Maj-Gen Myint Hlaing, formerly commander of Northeast Command (Gen Maung Aye’s former close aide who instigated the downfall of Gen Khin Nyunt) was promoted to Lt-Gen and appointed Chief of Staff, Air Defense. That position had previously been held by Prime Minister Gen Soe Win, who is now receiving medical treatment in Singapore.
Maj-Gen Ye Myint, formerly Commander of Eastern Command, was promoted to Lt-Gen and appointed head of Military Affairs Security. He is also Gen Maung Aye’s closest associate.

Than Shwe’s men took over the defense ministry. During the 2006 meeting, Brig-Gen Tin Ngwe, a close associate of Gen Thura Shwe Mann, was appointed Brigadier GS (General Staff). Thura Shwe Mann reportedly maintains good relations with Maung Aye.

Than Shwe regularly holds meetings with Myint Swe, Industry Minister Aung Thaung, Science and Technology Minister U Thaung, Home Affairs Minister Maj Gen Maung Oo, and Information Minister Kyaw Hsan.

Than Shwe is also widely believed to have given a green light to attack Aung San Suu Kyi and her convoy in Depayin in May 2003. Aung Thaung and U Thaung were believed to have been behind the thuggish style attacks on activists in August this year.

Observers believed that Maung Aye and his loyalists have been sidelined and his influence may be on the wane. Some diplomatic sources said that Maung Aye, former regional commander in Eastern Shan State, has been slow in making any move against his boss. If he does, he is sure to fail and will be purged.

Recently, Maung Aye also relinquished his chairmanship of the trade council. It was unclear whether he was forced to give up the position.

Some officials believed that the Than Shwe and Maung Aye disagree over the future role of the army in politics and in any reform of the armed forces.

Since 1996, Maung Aye has reportedly proposed injecting new blood into the army with candidates from the Defense Services Academy, where he graduated from Intake 1.

His plan met with resistance from Than Shwe’s camp, however. Maung Aye was in charge of the defense ministry in the past, but he is now surrounded by younger junior officers who were elevated by Than Shwe.

Than Shwe is from Officer Training School Intake 9 and was commander of the Irrawaddy delta region in the 1980s.
The two men have served in the junta since 1988, first in the State Law and Order Restoration Council, and then in the State Peace and Development Council, when that replaced the SLORC in 1997.

The hands of those two men unleashed the hounds of hell in Rangoon and are now stained by the blood spilt in the carnage on the streets of the former capital and elsewhere in Burma.