There will be no left-wing pre-election coalition in Croatia to counter the main ruling Croatian Democratic Union, HDZ.
This was made clear after the opposition Mozemo! [We Can!] party announced it will go alone into the next elections, rejecting a pre-election alliance with the opposition Social Democrats, SDP.
“The party council … on Monday unanimously decided that we will go to the parliamentary elections in 2024 independently,” party coordinator Sandra Bencic said on Tuesday in Zagreb.
She noted that their exit also includes their strategic partners from previous elections, including the New Left and the civic grassroots movements “Zagreb is Ours” and “Srđ is Town” from Dubrovnik.
“Research we ordered in May clearly showed that there is no positive synergy, in fact, that there is a negative synergy abouta coalition with the SDP,” Bencic pointed out.
She left open the chances of forming a leftist coalition after the elections.
“Our decision to go into the elections independently [also] confirms that, at a national level, we will form a post-election coalition with parties from the centre to the left, and see the SDP as one of the main potential partners,” said Bencic.
She insisted fighting the elections alone would likely mobilize the largest number of voters on theleft and so increase their chances ofending HDZ rule through post-election coalitions.
According to public opinion research, the party that arose from civic activism is today the third largest in Croatia in terms of support.
Electoral model favours biggest political options
Political experts are divided about the wisdom of the move to go it alone.
The decision not to form a pre-election coalition with the SDP was “a brave, honest decision to take a stand in front of their voters with their ideas and programs, so I don’t see anything controversial,” Political Sciences professor and political analyst BertoSalajtold BIRN.
However, he warned: “It also means that a left-liberal coalition’s chances of winning next year’s parliamentary elections are reduced.”
Salaj said Mozemo! was ignoring the fact that Croatia’s electoral model, the D’Hondt method, and way it converts votes into seats in parliament, favours the strongest political options.
“It is important to be the strongest option in a particular electoral unit, as then you have a chance to do better in the distribution of mandates,”Salaj noted.
Croatia is divided into 10 electoral units. Each contributes 14 seats to the 151-seat parliament. The other 11 seats are reserved for national minorities and three MPs for the diaspora.
The D’Hondt method favours the bloc or party that gets the most votes. Parties that do not cross the electoral threshold, set at 5 per cent, win no seats, so those votes are “wasted”.
Salaj cited an example from the first constituency in the last parliamentary elections.
“The strongest option was the HDZ, which won six mandates, followed by the SDP and Mozemo! which got three mandates each because they ran independently, even though together they won more votes than the HDZ. If they had run together, they would have surpassed the HDZ and won seven mandates, and the HDZ would only have won five.”
“This [shows] what they will lose by deciding to go to the elections independently,”Salaj said.
Post-election coalition remains on the table
But the second coordinator of Mozemo!, Mayor of Zagreb Tomislav Tomasevic, defended the party’s decision.
He said IPSOS research showed that a coalition of SDP and Mozemo! would win fewer votes in total than if the parties went into the elections separately.
“We are convinced that with separate campaigns we can attract more voters to the elections, which is crucial for the HDZ to be removed from power. We’ve informed the SDP about the decision and will continue our cooperation in the parliamentary club,” he said.
“The election is probably a year away, and we have already decided to know what kind of campaign we are running, which is important for the SDP as well. We have left open the possibility of making coalitions in a smaller number of constituencies, even with the SDP. But it is too early to say in which ones and how many,” Tomasevic added.
He also stated that forming coalitions after the elections might be fairer and more transparent. “Since we are running independently, we will have our own candidate for prime minister. After the election, who will be prime minister will depend on the number of mandates,” Tomasevic noted.
Bencic emphasized that they still see the SDP as a post-election partner. She saidit was not enough just to remove the HDZ from power. What was also needed was to form a stable government to create the preconditions over four years for Croatia to bury the current model of government and start developing a new one.
SDP says it ‘respects’ the decision
Veteran political analyst Zarko Puhovski told N1 television that Mozemo! had chosen the less bad path. He also believes a pre-election coalition between Mozemo! with SDP would lack dynamism.
“A part of the Mozemo! party vote for that party because they are disappointed with the SDP and they would not want to return to the SDP because it has not improved for the better lately,” he said.
Puhovski said the SDP still has a chance to up its game. “They have no other option but … to try to organize themselves, and what they can do now is finally deal with their organizations,”Puhovski said.
SDP General Secretary Marko Kricka said on Tuesday that he did not see the latest move as a rejection by their colleagues from Mozemo, but as “an offer to go into the elections in a ‘dotted coalition’”.
He added that the SDP “respects” Mozemo!’s decision.“The SDP sees the next elections as an opportunity to replace the bad and corrupt HDZ government. We have been preparing for the parliamentary elections for a long time, ‘polishing’ our policies and fieldwork,”Kricka told Hina news agency.
Vuk Tesija
Zagreb
BIRN
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