As we move into 2024, Germany has agreed to host three types of missiles on its territory, including the infamous Tomahawks and the new supersonic Dark Eagle, which has a range of 3,000 km, reaching all regions of central Russia. Additionally, France, Italy, Finland, the Netherlands, Denmark, and Poland are either developing their own mid-range missiles or purchasing American ones.

Two key points emerge:
1. The mass return of mid-range missiles to Europe is a direct consequence of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Without the invasion, there would be no missiles.
2. The missiles would have returned to Europe even if Russia had captured Kyiv in three days. The invasion, regardless of its success, would have initiated a new Cold War; there were simply no other outcomes.

In other words:

- NATO is establishing logistics for the rapid deployment of 300,000 soldiers to the Russian borders.
- Defense spending by European NATO countries in 2024 has increased to $380 billion, finally reaching the 2% of GDP level that the US has long advocated.
- European militarization is in full swing, with additional defense expenditures from 2022 to 2028 projected to be $700-800 billion compared to pre-war levels.
- Sweden and Finland have joined NATO, turning the Baltic Sea into a new military frontier.

All of this was INEVITABLE, regardless of the outcome of the invasion of Ukraine. Initiating the invasion was a strategic loss. Why would Russia engage in a new Cold War when its GDP, along with its allies (Belarus, North Korea, and Syria), constitutes about 3% of the world economy, compared to the Soviet bloc’s 10%? What are we counting on?

The war in Ukraine is a strategic defeat for Russia, and no matter how much Putin continues to exert pressure, sending more Russian citizens into the conflict, this fact will not change.

Ilya Matveev

Translated from Russian by Adam Novak

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