Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine on the night of 23 February has long been in the making. Moscow has demanded that Ukraine should not join NATO ever since the end of the cold war. Since it annexed Crimea in 2014, Russia has built up its banking sector’s ability to withstand a severe shock. Its recent ‘passportisation’ of several separatist regions, including the Donbass, was a clear signal of how it now wanted to exert its influence over Ukraine. Further, deteriorating relations between EU states and Russia were evident in the politics around Nord Stream 2, whose route bypassed Ukraine. Meanwhile, sanctions – the US and EU’s preferred means of persuasion – have never been a real substitute for diplomacy. Such action, which has now taken the form of an economic war, was often was a prelude to war in the 20^th century.