05 June 2000
Quezon City, Philippines

Preface

Mindanao’s rich human and natural resources have been the country’s comparative advantage in its integration to the global economy. The country’s economic development plan is, in fact, relying mainly on Mindanao’s resources for its success. As such, it is very essential for the political leadership of the country to ensure that Mindanao should follow the imposed neo-liberal policies and globalization programs of the most advanced capitalist countries. For those who will oppose or stand on the way of this road to globalization, will have very limited options to take. They will be crushed or torn into pieces if they will dare to oppose such projects.

The intensifying armed conflicts in Mindanao today should be considered on this macro context. The historical and bloody struggle of the Moro for their right to self-determination is holistically understood in this context. The present Estrada administration as well as its predecessors have been trying to smokescreen the struggle for such an inherent right of the Moro people but eventually they have failed. But this failure is paid for by the blood and lives of the Moro, Lumad and majority Filipino in Mindanao and the whole country.

The “all out war policy” of Erap government which is tactically directed to the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) is basically and strategically addressed to the entire people who are actively opposing the anti-people policies of modern globalization and neo-liberalization dictated by the advanced capitalist countries. The suffering of civilians as the direct effect of his “all out war” policy is just but secondary consideration. Erap through its military advisers and agents covertly revived the infamous conflict among peoples in Mindanao: Christians- Muslims Conflict; Moro vs. Lumad. In some instances it created the intrigues amongst the Christians vs Christians and Muslims vs Muslims within the Christians and Muslim populace. Much more, the government propaganda machinery has maximized unverified criminalities to justify the attacks to the MILFs position and camps. It is in order to ensure the people’s support on military actions on government’s advantage. At this stage, it should be good to remember that last year when there were heavy AFP attacks on Rajah Muda, their justification was that, the Philippine National Oil Company (PNOC) workers were kidnapped and brought in Rajah Muda. Later, the PNOC denied that there was kidnapping of its workers. But the military operations had already resulted to hundred of deaths and thousands of people dislocated in the areas.

Aside from attributing unverified criminal charges to the MILF, Erap’s propaganda machine is now driving MILF’s connection to Abu Sayyaf despite some verified data on Abu Sayyaf’s history and characteristic. It has been exposed that this group is a military creation and is until now maintained by some select-officers of the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP). Reported systematic operation of military agents such as sowing intrigues among Muslims, Christians and Lumads and then recruiting them to vigilante formations have been widespread. MILF’s tactical military offensives as offshoots of the government’s attack against them such as occupation of highways, municipal halls, and villages’ etc. were intentionally highlighted to give more credence of the intrigues. Civil war is inevitable in Mindanao should this scheme continue.

In this light, a critical and sharp study as well as concrete steps and concerted actions must be launched by concerned NGOs, POs, groups, individuals, and all genuine peace advocates under Mindanao Peoples Congress for Peace and Development (MPCPD) in order to squarely address the worsening crisis. As among the leading stakeholders on Mindanao’s lasting peace and genuine development, let us transform this crisis into an advantage position to highlight and strengthen our resolve on PEACE AND DEVELOPMENT in Mindanao and the country as a whole.

 I. Brief Historical Background of the Situation:

A. Circumstances during the Ramos Regime:

1. The Ramos regime had recognized and offered the important role of Mindanao to the development of the entire country. It designed Mindanao 2000 which is basically anchored on the economic fundamentals of Philippines 2000, the previous regime’s development package in implementing globalization and neo-liberalization programs. Recognizing the existence of armed revolutionary groups, he also described “PEACE” as the key to achieve such development. It is in this context that the peace process was conceptualized, thus opening peace talks to all revolutionary forces. However, it was designed as an approach to strategically neutralize if not annihilate the revolutionary forces.

2. He tactically prioritized those experiencing revolutionary fatigue, small and less complicated revolutionary groups. He first talked to the Revolutionary Armed Movement (RAM) in 1993. Immediately after, he concentrated talking with the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF). The revolutionary value of the MNLF then was its official recognition and support from the Organization of Islamic Conference (OIC).

3. FVR at this period recognized MILF as a big threat to its development agenda. He then thought of some military covert operation to strategically neutralize the MILF. Through his select military agents, he coddled with some members of the MILF who belongs to an influential clan in Maguindanao with a coup plot against the MILF’s central leadership. Integral part of this operation was the re-establishment of vigilantes, through, the infamous Italian priest killer Norberto Manero (alias Kumander Bucay), a member of Ilaga an anti-Muslim vigilante group.

4. In 1996, the peace talks between MNLF and Ramos regime concluded with an agreement to establish the SPCPD (Southern Philippines Council for Peace andDevelopment). He also accepted the governorship of ARMM (Autonomous Region for Muslim Mindanao) against the wishes of some OIC members. It was when Prof. Nur Misuari assured Ramos that he is going to adopt the Mindanao 2000 development agenda and framework. Afterwards the MNLF as revolutionary forces weakened and was later completely isolated from the Moro masses.

5. Ramos initiated talks with the MILF in January 1997. However, it did not prosper because he got busy with the presidential election in 1998. Moreover, the Ramos’ coup plot within the MILF also failed when 200 agents were accidentally discovered and arrested by the MILF. The regime then adjusted their tactics towards MILF by using “carrots and stick”. Carrots or development funds to maintain the peace process with minimal “sticks” or military offensives/attacks towards MILF position and camps to soften MILF stance on some sensitive issues. Meanwhile, Ramos also started the talks with the CPP-NPA-NDF.

6. Ramos and his US minions were worried over Erap’s popularity. They expected that Erap would win the election and would not continue the globalization program and neo-liberal policy Ramos has started. To ensure its interest, the US entered into a compromise with Erap’s camp. One of the trusted men of Erap was summoned to the United States for the deal (Mercado Mission). In exchange for smooth transition of power the US asked for their interest including the Visiting Forces Agreements (VFA), and the retention of CIA/FVR’s henchmen like Sec. Aguirre as national security council chief, Sec. Siason as foreign affairs chief, and Gen. Calimlim as intelligence and presidential guard chief. These are the people who will ensure and maintain US interest should Erap assume power. Erap’s camp at that time was amenable to the compromise for the reason of immediately ensuring victory and/or avoid possible assassination.

B. Circumstances within Erap Administration:

1. Faithful of their agreement, Erap adopted policies that support globalization and neo-liberal programs including the affirmation of the strategic role of Mindanao into the global economy. He also installed all trusted men of the US into sensitive position, as well as endorsed the VFA. Because of his popularity, he implemented policies and programs which Ramos failed to implement such as Marcos wealth resolution, placement of Marcos cronies back to business, charter change etc.

2. In 1999, the peace talk between Government of the Philippines (GRP) and CPP-NPA-NDF collapsed because of disagreements on the framework, while the GRP-MILF peace talks moved very slowly.

3. Meanwhile, the economic crises of the nation continue to intensify. Effects of the impact of globalization have worsened this year 2000. The absence of Erap’s comprehensive development program confounded this crisis. Government’s program on empowerment, food security, agriculture and rural development and housing remains a slogan. One hundred million pesos a day expense for military offensive against MILF deepened further the economic crisis.

4. Evidence on cronyism, massive graft and corruption, negative impact of globalization to the people continues to intensify. Deregulation and the subsequent series of oil price increases, complicates further the economic crisis and has seriously caused Erap’s popularity to melt down at negative 16% net rating.

5. Evidence of squabbles and differences within the AFP and civilian circles in the Erap government worsened reportedly. The squabble is attributed to the serious differences on the handling of the growing effects of globalization to the people. Hence, the popularity of Erap dived down and is blamed to his policies and programs that caused the deepening economic crisis in the country. It also worsened the cracks within the government and elite, thus plot of coup d’ tat against Erap emerged from the significant circle of generals and officers loyal to Ramos. It has also consolidated the Oust Erap Movement.

6. The deepening economic crisis is being dragged to serious differences over the handling of the Mindanao problem. There are two opposing schools of thoughts on how to handle the Mindanao problem that emerged. First the “non-military approach” which is pushed by the liberal circles in his cabinet and other development oriented groups, and second the “military-approach” which is pushed by Sec. Almonte and Fidel V. Ramos, (FVR)‘s circle of generals and men in the Erap cabinet.

7. The former is basically a continuation of FVR’s approach to the MILF by pouring development funds as long as the MILF sits on the negotiating table. This is being actively played by the group of Aventajado. However, the militarist advocates who are not comfortable with the said approach have held Erap hostage with the latter. Low popularity rating convinced him to give in to militarist approach. Expecting a bounce of his rating he ordered an “all out war”.

8. The US is also worried over the declining popularity rating of Erap. Its dwindling support to Erap’s government is given a timetable until September 2000 to give him time to regain the desirable rating. Stratford warned him the consequence of military coup, constitutional coup, or a combination of both, like what happened to Pakistan and Sri Lanka.

9. As such, Erap quickly followed the US blackmail to take harsh formula in handling the Mindanao problem with the MILF to remedy his popularity in spite strong opposition from his civilian advisers. He also ensured the retention of tough but loyal officers in strategic positions like Generals Lacson and Reyes while either removing or floating officers with uncertain loyalties.

10. Erap’s “all out war policy” combines the scheme of sowing intrigues with Christians and Muslims and Lumads. Among the intrigues it propagated was like this one, “what will happen to Christians and Lumads if MILF version of autonomy is given?” It instills fear of displacement among the Christians and Lumads have if autonomy is implemented. Thus creating confusion among them, since MILF also has limited or no ready-made answers to this issue because according to them they are still talking peace or the autonomy mechanics with the GRP.

11. Included also in the scheme is the operationalization of the vigilantes and fundamentalist groups. The Abu Sayyaf consolidates its organization with anti-Christian orientation; the Christian Liberation Army (CLA) and the Ilaga, with anti Muslim posturing. Concerned Basilenos, a mixed Muslims and Christians group organized by Sec. Aguirre with anti-Abu Sayyaf posturing but also conducts counter-kidnapping. Military agents aided by CIA advisers were reportedly organizing and funding these vigilantes and fundamentalists. Hence, the “all out war” policy and military offensive against the MILF has relatively obtained support from the people of Luzon and Visayas who used to witness war at the tri-media that covers the atrocities of the Abu Sayyaf in Basilan and Jolo. It was also the effect of massive and effective campaigns of the Erap government to associate MILF to Abu Sayyaf.

12. Ferrying out of frightening reactions from MILF and its supporters both in and out of the country were carried out to justify the “all out war policy”. The government viewed this as welcome sign to easily neutralize pro-MILF international sentiment and paved the way in neutralizing low profile personalities of the MILF in the homefront.

13. In Mindanao after realizing the alarming war damages, most of the people call for peace and appeal to resolve differences in the negotiating table. Peace marches, rallies, fora and lobbying to campaign “peace not war” is now gaining momentum and support in the country including the broad section of the population, especially the grassroots who are directly affected by the war.

 11. The Current Situation:

In the last quarter of 1999, Erap set the deadline to finish the Peace Talks with the MILF on June 30, 2000, in time for the preparation and the start of a joint military exercise between the US and the Philippines. The joint exercise which was named OPLAN Balikatan 2000 ended in February 2000. When the AFP got the opportunity to justify the attack on Camp Omar of MILF in municipalities of Talayan and Shariff Aguak, those who graduated from the said military exercise were deployed to augmented the government troops in the assault. The military’s significant victory in MILF’s Camp Omar proved accordingly the effectiveness of the war tactics undertaken in the joint military exercise as well as the military hardware left by US soldiers.

After the Camp Omar incident, criminality like bombings of public utility and vehicles like ferries and buses as well as bombings of public places became widespread. These bombings were blamed in the MILF by the military. Along these issues, the Manero haste as well as Abu Sayyaf kidnapping activities have been capturing the headlines in the tri-media. The bombing of the passenger ferry boat that cost lives of 42 innocent civilians was used by the AFP was used to justify the attack of MILF’s Camp Bilal. The attack was based on unverified intelligence report that the suspects were hiding in the said camp. The military, for the second time, employed tactics and armaments acquired from OPLAN Balikatan 2000 courtesy of the US armed forces..

Unlike Camp Omar where MILF lost some strategic positions, Camp Bilal’s MILF troops successfully defended its position that in the threes day fight, the government forces suffered heavy casualties. As offshoots of the AFP’s intense attack, the MILF launched military counter offensive by attacking AFP’s garrisons and occupied Kauswagan town for 10 days. Later however, MILF forces left Kauswagan to heed the appeal of the civilians and peace advocates. Meanwhile, the vigilante group called the “God Shepherd” was then organized with anti-Muslim orientation. The organizers highlighted MILFs occupation of the Christian predominated town of Kauswagan. Watching President Estrada in full combat gear inspired the group’s formation.

After Camp Bilal, the AFP brought up the war into the main Camp of MILF, the Camp Abubakar Assidique. The justification at this time is the illegal toll collection in the Narciso Ramos Highway. The residents, however, denied such activity. The Narciso Ramos Highway traverse the main camp with MILF manning checkpoints. The MILF formally informed the government that attacking the said highway would mean a big war. Hence, in a peace panel meeting on 27^th of April 2000 the MILF brought the highway issue to their attention. Both the government and MILF peace panels came up with a “peace formula” on the said highway. Since the issue raised was police matter, they both agreed that the Philippine National Police be the one clearing the area and not the AFP. However, barely six hours after, the AFP violated the agreement by attacking the MILF position and check points along the highway.

Intense fighting ensued after the MILF suspended peace talks in protest to the violation of the agreements on the Narciso Ramos Highway. The war spilled over the entire areas near the camps of MILF in Mindanao. Alarmed over the situation, the peace advocates in Cotabato provinces called for the resumption of peace talks and cease-fire between the two warring camps. However, only the MILF responded to the call by declaring a ceasefire for 48 hours. The war resumed again after it lapsed. The peace advocates, again asked the MILF to reposition its forces into 1 kilometer away from the contested highway to avoid prolonging and intensifying the war and ease civilian sufferings. MILF faithfully responded to the call, but the government still continue pounding MILF positions with mortars and airdrop bombs. The government has still to decide its response with the MILF repositioning until today. And on the 18^th of May 2000, the AFP extended their demands from Narciso highway into additional 3 kilometer repositioning of MILF troops away from the said highway after occupying the Narciso Ramos Highway. What does the military really want, the Highway or the MILF main camp? This is a question that nags the minds of most peace loving people in Mindanao.

Gradual and strategic military constriction is the tactic employed by the AFP-GRP to crush and capture the main camp of the MILF, Camp Abubakar. It employs the elite forces of the AFP, the Marines and Scout Rangers with heavy armaments while the Army and para-military are placed as support forces. The AFP also involved 80% of its ground force, 80% of its air force, 90% of its Marine combat force, and 80% of its naval force. Further 5 AFP Divisions assigned in different parts of the country was also asked to commit 1500 combat force each as augmentation force to the ground forces. More or less the AFP deployed 50,000 personnel excluding the 42,000 auxiliary forces in Mindanao. To boast military’s morale further, Erap went around the areas near the fighting with complete military gear. Furthermore, the AFP covertly and overtly were able to distribute more than twenty thousand (20,000) heavy weapons to the vigilantes (both Muslims and Christians).

The MILF on other hand deployed 12,150 combat forces with heavy ground armaments scattered in 4 provinces where the heavy fighting is taking place. These are Lanao Norte, and Matanog- 2 Brigades each, Lanao Sur, Buldon, Zamboanga Sur- 1 Brigade each, Maguindanao and Pikit, 1 division each. The fighting ratio between AFP and MILF is 5:1 respectively. However, in Lanao Norte only 1500 MILF ground troops are fighting against 13,000 Marines.

As a result of these intense firefights, the AFP recorded as of this writing, 324 dead, 542 wounded and 42 missing while 80 MILF mujahideens have suffered and 123 dead and others wounded. On the innocent civilians, again massive evacuations and displacements, loss of lives and millions worth of properties are lost and wasted. The government welfare agency recorded as many as 300,000 individuals displaced, 121 innocent women and children killed from indiscriminate firings, airdrops bombs from the AFP’s aircraft and artillery. This still excludes those hundreds of deaths caused by diseases in the evacuation centers.

The closures of major highways, sea ports and airports as well as bombs scare and panic buying have led to the collapse of commerce and business that cost 1 Billion pesos a day losses. It also threatened widespread scarcity of food supplies among the populace especially areas affected with heavy fighting. The damaged public utilities such as source of water, light and power due to heavy fighting and bombs have further compounded the miserable situation of the people.

The US direct participation in the ruthless war is through their military advisers and logistics and armaments support like the global positioning system (GPS), gadget to take satellite photos to detect MILF positions. These are exposed in the MILF’s captured armaments and gadgets from the AFP during the fighting.

Meanwhile, the situation in handling MILF crisis and Abu Sayyaf’s terroristic activities of kidnapping foreign tourists are also seen not remote in the near future to be among the US justification of the deployment of seven fleets in the seas between Mindanao and Malaysia using the programs of the VFA.

 III. Reactions of the People in the Mindanao Crisis:

1. Church: Organized its response to “peace not war” campaign. However, it came late and divided. The position of the Catholic Bishops Conference of Philippines (CBCP) differs to the individual members. Bishop Quevedo, the CBCP Pres., an advocate for peace has called for the GRP and MILF to go back in the negotiating table. While Bishop de la Cruz of Basilan and considerable number of priests have called for an “all out war”.

2. Business Groups: They position for the “ all out war” if this would only last for 3-7 days. But however, later they called to stop the war when they realized that war has prolonged and already causing more than 1 billion pesos a day loss for their business activities.

3. NGO/POs: Reactive and in most cases only confined to relief response activity with the victims of war: the evacuees. Those who are active were mostly coming from Non-Moro NGOs.

4. Local Government: Sold out to support “all out war” but those within the war zones who opposed war were pressured to support the policy of the government.

5. Media: Generally stands for the government. However, some are reporting objectively.

6. Development Agencies: Consider withdrawal of its support in Mindanao Projects.

7. Senators: Mindanao senators (Barbers, Pimentel and Guingona) called for: “resumption of peace talk”, stop the war in Mindanao. But majority of the senators and congressman are supportive to all out war. Only 6 of 49 Mindanao congresspersons campaign for peace.

8. International Community: Those who were updated of the situation have launched letter-barrage to pressure the Philippine Government to stop the war. This is not yet systematic and widespread.

9. International Media (EU, France, Germany): Reacted and penetrated Basilan and Sulu due to hostage taking of Abu-Sayyaf which involved their nationalities.

10. When the war intensified the Christian-Muslim animosities also heightened. The Christians and Muslim fundamentalist and Christian vigilantes and others have also emerged,

11. Most of those who participated in the peace campaigns started from above. Minimal participation and initiatives come from the grassroots. The peace campaigns are launched separately and are not coordinated. The TFME (Task Force for Mindanao Evacues) and allied NGO/POs also had relatively failed to immediately react, lead and maximize the opportunity to strengthen the peace and development advocacy in Mindanao. The MPCPD has actively coordinated with other grassroots based POs and NGOs to form the Mindanao Peace Movement which has also facilitated the formation of the PEACE Now on the national level.

 IV. General Analysis:

1. The Erap’s handling of the current Mindanao crisis is the concrete approach of the US-dictated state that implements modern globalization program and neo-liberal policy. The US direct intervention in Erap’s handling could be manifested in the MILF’s capture of US made-sophisticated armaments and modern war technologies on communication used by the AFP in the offensives.

2. The US’s war ideology that the number one enemy of the world today after the cold war is the “fundamentalist Islam religion and terrorists Muslim” is clearly noticeable on Erap’s campaign in handling the Mindanao crisis. The said war ideology has maintained and justified US own existence as world police dog and the only powerful country that maintains world peace and order.

3. The advanced capitalist countries such Japan, European Union and US have utilized multi-forms to bring the developing countries into the framework of modern globalization under their control. It employs direct military intervention through provision of military logistical support and multi-national “peace-keeping” forces especially those countries with strong and serious problem with revolutionaries and freedom fighters in order to forcibly crush resistance and force these countries to integrate to modern globalization. It also maximizes international organizations such as United Nation and World Security Council, International Monetary Fund, WTO, etc. to systematically integrate those countries that they have limited control and bring these countries integrate to modern globalization.

4. Mindanao in the Philippine Context:

Mindanao has been said to be the land of promise. The strategic development success of the country depends on the Mindanao significant role and its abundant natural resources. The current government has placed Mindanao as the food basket where foods of generations to come will be produced from Mindanao. In the world economy, it also plays important role in the BIMP-EAGA, and politically and militarily, it has strategically placed in Asia Pacific regional rim.

In this context, the US tries and wants to integrate Mindanao Islands into the world politically, economically and culturally. In this context also the Filipino elite represented by Erap finds no room for the establishment of an Independent Islamic State in Mindanao.

The Erap government employs “stick and carrots” approach to assimilate Mindanao and by crushing the rebellion. The “carrots” or development funds are channeled through Aventajado group and “sticks” through Sec. Mercado and Gen. Reyes of the AFP. However, Erap prioritized his self-preservation in the face of his dwindling popularity and avoid the possibilities of a coup. He used force to appear as hero in the eyes of movie fans. Recovering heroically after being put down by the bad guys.

5. Option by Force:

This is the modern application of the low-intensity conflict (LIC). It employs modern war logistics, equipment and armament. The Erap government called this as an “all out war”. This is however made to appear for his macho image he acquired in filmmaking. This option is also the modern version of “total war policy” of US-Aquino regime launched against the communists. The insincerity of the Erap government in the peace talks is exposed on this option.

Meanwhile, other revolutionary forces viewed the Mindanao crisis based on what they think advantageous to them. The CPP-NPA-NDF has entered into tactical alliance with MILF, but it however is not as serious as to support its victory. The NDF did this just for propaganda purposes. This group is also looking for the sophisticated military hardware from the MILF. The RPM-P/RPA-ABB entered tactical alliance with MILF on the bases that they viewed MILF as the legitimate representative of the Moro masses, who are fighting for the right to self-determination. As such, they accordingly are obliged to support the genuine political objectives of MILF as a proletarian obligation. Thus, recent attacks at the strategic establishments in Metro Manila in support MILF’s cause were attributed to them.

The massive support from the masses on this option by force is also an important element. It would strategically integrate Mindanao to global economy by means of this option if Erap successfully rally the support of the Christian, Moro and Lumad masses in Mindanao.

6. The peace process being advocated by the government within the framework of pursuing the interest of US through globalization program and neo-liberal policy in Mindanao would only mean a preparation for a big war by the government against those opposed the said program and policies like the MILF.

7. The Mechanics of OPLAN PHOENIX

The Oplan Phoenix is the general military plan that operationalized military design of the AFP to neutralize, if not crush the MILF positions and camps. (Oplan Phoenix literally means the “use of intense fire/offensive). The primary objective of this design is to neutralize the MILF leadership and crush its central base, the Camp Abubakar. It mainly employs military tactics on “gradual constriction” to all MILF recognized camps. It also believes that crippling and crushing one after the other small and satellite camps would ensure AFP-GRP’s victory.

The Oplan Phoenix also sets of an estimated timetable of two months of intense firefights and strong resistance from the MILF should it starts attacking Camp Abubakar. This estimate accordingly, is based on the data gathered from the AFP’s strategic agents within the MILF that it losses logistics and war ammunitions for that span of time. The US military adviser also affirmed the timetable. The further set the timetable of seven months to completely neutralize MILF force in the entire Mindanao.

The Oplan Phoenix was also based on the conventional warfare strategy of the MILF wherein it shall justify the AFP-GRP to mobilize their entire heavy war materials and forces. It includes drops of international regulated bombs from its air force, deployment of Naval near suspected sea exitand entrances of MILF camps, concentration of heavy artillery as well as all of its elite forces. It also uses modern technologies and armaments acquired from the US.

Below are some features of the Oplan Phoenix Operationalization:

1. GRP vs MILF

The AFP-GRP would use its elite forces as the leading troops in the ground and launch intense and indiscriminate firing of artillery and airdrops bombs. They identified the elite ground forces as the Marines and Scout Rangers while the army, police and para-military shall perform support contingent. It shall also mobilized military reserve forces for medical and food relief operations to the war victims particularly the evacuees. The elite forces such as the Marines and Scout Rangers are organically placed under the commands of the 1^st, 4^th and 6^th Infantry Divisions with specific military objectives.

Included also in the tactics of Oplan Phoenix is the massive campaign and launching of provocative actions that comprise indiscriminate mortar firing towards civilian and massive psychological operations against the MILF. Psychological operation embodies schemes on isolating the MILF by associating this revolutionary force to criminality and Abu Sayyaf activities. It also maximizes the psychic of MILF ranks and files of leader oriented and close family ties to scramble field commanders into emotional state in retaliation of leaders and families hit by the AFP with its indiscriminate firing. It was also designed to isolate MILF with their international support/allies and to weaken support of the Moro masses locally.

Further, the Oplan Phoenix also designed scheme of systematic cracking down of those supportive personalities within the government and business community. Witch-hunts undertaken by select-military agents are now operationalized and it would later mature into sporadic disappearances, salvaging and other serious cases of human rights violation.

2. Muslim vs Christian:

Oplan Phoenix recognizes this conflict to the strategic victory of the AFP-GRP against the MILF. The sensitive and traumatic experience of both Muslim and Christians could be easily maximized once provoked. Thus, criminalities, like bombings of public places before the attack of MILF camps and the Abu Sayyaf activities had been highlighted. The MILF however repeatedly denied any relation with the Abu Sayyaf in all cases attributed to them.

It also employs kidnappings, counter kidnappings, bombings and counter bombings at sensitive places for the both Muslim and Christians. Included in here are the bombings of Mosques for the Muslim as well as Churches for the Christian in Mindanao. This scheme is to ensure moral justification to block any local and international support for the MILF.

Below are some nagging data gathered and nagging question taken from an in-depth study with the Abu Sayyaf group.

a. Abu Sayyaf fighters were initially recruited to be volunteer mujahideens to fight the American surrogate war in Afghanistan in the early 90s.

b. Some select military intelligence officers of the AFP trained the Abu Sayyaf troops in Sulu, Tawi-tawi, Basilan and other remote places in Mindanao.

c. The funds and arms of the Abu Sayyaf were provided by US covert operators, probably connected to the CIA. Osama Bin Laden has been identified as the principal supporter for the trainings and procurement of the Abu Sayyaf funds, and arms.
d. In 1994 an NGO which is an ally of TFME in Zamboanga confirmed that 5 leading Abu Sayyaf leading personalities were actually military agents including Edwin Angeles. For strange reason, Edwin Angeles was assassinated a couple of months after Abdurajak Janjalani’s December 1998 death. Where are the four others now?

e. Sometimes in 1995, the funds either failed to come or did not come on time, Thus, the Abu Sayyaf troops raided the town of Ipil, Zamboanga del Sur. Their initial intention was to rob the banks of Ipil. Unexpectedly, however, a group of soldiers not belonging to the Ipil Command were eating in a restaurant engaged them in a firefight. The shoot out drew the attention of the local police and military units who had earlier reported ordered confined to their camps and were thus caught flatfooted by the Abu Sayyaf raid. To divert the attention of the responding police and military units, Abu Sayyaf bandits razed Ipil to the ground.

f. Mr. Kadaffy Janjalani, the current Abu Sayyaf’s commander, was detained in Camp Crame‘s detention cell with a maximum security. But for strange reasons he escaped his cell and went back to the hill immediately after his brother, former head of the group, was killed in a raid.

g. The spokesperson of Abu Sayyaf in the name of Abu Sabaya was reportedly frequented talking with a certain colonel in AFP’s Southern Command before the bloody hostage taking in Basilan took place that includes priest, teachers and students.
h. Senator Aquilino Pimentel is suggesting to read the book: Blowback, by Chalmers Johnson, that accordingly it may justify a deeper study into the affairs of the CIA in our country that have a direct relevance to the nature and problems that the Abu Sayyaf is causing the country today.

3. Christian vs Christian:

The Christian church particularly the Catholic Church is considered to be one of the most critical institutions to the anti-people policies and action of Erap’s government. However, recently and perhaps for the first time, the AFP-GRP is relatively succeeding in dividing the church with the Crisis in Mindanao. In the burning Mindanao crisis, it was very clear that the Catholic Church contradicts its individual position and as institution. The church leaders particularly Bishops and priest differ on its position on the “all out war” of Erap in Mindanao.

4. Muslim vs Muslim

Oplan Phoenix also recognized the scheme of intensifying cracks within the Moro society. It designed scheme on how to mobilize Moro personalities within the local government units to support the all out war. They mobilized these personalities to convince Moro elders to cut off their support to MILF by disallowing their children to actively join MILF cause. However, a number of them instead joined multi-sectoral formation for peace movement.

5. Lumad Communities

There were also schemes being designed to sow intrigues within and among the Lumad society especially near Muslim communities in order to revive the historical and bloody Lumad vs. Muslim conflict. Lumads are now encouraged by their leaders to arm themselves against the Muslims.

8. It appears that those criminalities like bombings of public places in random urban centers, occupation of town halls, clearing of highways are but secondary things to the main objective of neutralizing if not totally crush the MILF militarily. These were happening and shall continue happening while MILF, the AFP-GRP’s usual suspect, keep on denying any responsibility, until such time that AFP announces strategic military victory over the MILF.

9. The Oplan Zero Hour:

The “Oplan Zero Hour” (OZH) is the defensive and counter offensive military tactics of the MILF against the Oplan Phoenix of the AFP. Its an “all out Jihad” or holy war. The OZH will accordingly commence should strategic military position at Camp Abubakar are attacked by the military. OZH also embodied plan to spell over the war in all places of Mindanao, Visayas and even Metro Manila.

OZH shall engage mainly a positional warfare however, recent nature of war appears that MILF did not only employ positional warfare but combined guerrilla warfare in their offensives. Thus, heavy damage had been inflicted on the AFP as it widely believes that MILF would only use mainly the conventional warfare. Meanwhile MILF has also augmented its perimeter defense in Camp Abubakar with their elite forces and heavy weaponry. In some instances, OZH had also flexibly improvised the positional warfare into tunnel warfare.

To counter psychological operation of the Oplan Phoenix, OZH employs serious handling of the mass media as well as critically following the peace movement of the masses wherein they base their defensive and counter offensive actions. Though, there were some reported excesses in the field the MILF has imposed strict discipline to its forces. In effect, MILF has successfully captured the support of the Moro people especially the peace advocates as well as the international community when it declared 48-hour cease-fire and voluntary repositioning its forces as its response to the call for “peace not war” call of the grassroots organization.

In effect psychological operation for the AFP-GRP becomes self-defeating as the Cluster E couldn’t even know what to do of such troops repositioning and peace declaration. The moral support from the people to the AFP’s action before they attack Narciso Highway is now eroding. The Cluster E of Pres. Erap and the President himself is now isolated specially among peace advocates in Mindanao. The Cluster E of the Cabinet is headed by Foreign Affairs Secretary Domingo Siazon.

What has been lacking with the OZH is the legal machinery that supports military actions with the effective and massive legal offensive from the Moro masses. There were some actions from some legal organization but they still need enhancement into a more coordinated, intensive and extensive campaign machineries.

10. Squabbles within the Ruling Elite:

The ruling elite’s efficient and effective control in the country is now eroding as the squabbles continue to intensify. Below are some features of these squabbles.

a. Erap Clique:

President Joseph Ejercito Estrada is determined to finish his term in 2004. However, with his continued low rating popularity, some sectors believe that he might not finish it. The President then employs formula of giving preferential options on the Military to ensure loyalty and avoid the serious threat of coup.

b. FVR Clique

The FVR clique continues to be a big thorn in Erap’s government. This group is now consolidating and waiting for a proper time to strategically strike against the Erap government. They are critically watching the popularity ratings of Pres. Erap and the loyalty of the AFP. This clique will gain the most should the Oplan Phoenix fail and the Mindanao crisis prolongs. The US is now undertaking steps to determine the effectiveness of Ms. Gloria Macapagal Arroyo. It is testing her as care taker of the country while Erap is on his foreign visits while the situation in Mindanao and in the country is intensifying.

c. Combined FVR and Cory Cliques:

Alliance of these two groups is also observed especially on their actions and critical position against Erap government. They are at the same tune to maximizing constitutional and extra-constitutional means to disrupt Erap government. This would become clearer during elections on 2001 and 2004.

d. US Interest:

The furtherance of the US’s interest will however be still the determining factor who among these cliques rules. The warring cliques look into the strategic support from the US and other advanced capitalist countries like Japan and EU. Any action coming from those cliques must have the blessing coming from these countries. Interestingly, some of them got the preferential blessing as they all bring the interest of the globalization program and neo-liberal policy.

 V. Scenarios:

Below are possible scenarios which would guide us and design our plans and actions to advance peace and development in Mindanao.

1. Scenario 1: GRP-AFP will intensify military offensive against the MILF:

It is the face of widespread and intense military offensives and crackdown against the combat forces and civilian base of the MILF and declares the suspension of peace process. No cease-fire and No Peace policy even if there is a widespread call from the peace advocates.

Bases:

a. The MILF demands are not within the boundary of the Philippines constitution. Erap government is firmed on his resolve to solve Mindanao crisis within the framework of the constitution.

b. The ruling elite and the international business community are still united on the “all out war policy” of Estrada’s administration in handling the Mindanao problems.

c. Peace Movement coming from the civil society has still to develop a coherent/united peace action. Hence, no effective intervention could be done.

d. The MILF-Abu Sayyaf packaging would succeed. Systematic international opinion over the Mindanao crisis had been problematic and very slow because of the Abu Sayyaf activities. Even most Islamic countries are uncertain of their support especially from the friends of the GRP and the US.

2. Scenario 11: The MILF position weakened: As a consequence to the first scenario.

It is the face that MILF will just go back to the negotiating table at the dictate of the GRP while AFP continues launching intense military offensive on MILF military position and camps. It could also be manifested in the massive crackdown of the personalities and projection of large surrender of MILF mujahideen’s and demoralization of its rank and file.

Bases:

a. The GRP would successfully packaged MILF to Abu Sayyaf and blocks the foreign support from Islamic world and international peace movement.

b. The GRP could successfully inflict considerable damaged to the leadership of the MILF through intense airdrops bombing. Leadership oriented rank in files is vulnerable to demoralization should central leadership is inflicted considerable damage. There will be physical occupation of the AFP on the different camps of the MILF. This symbol is very important for the propaganda packaging of the GRP.

c. Slow response of genuine peace advocates from the Christians, Moro and Lumad populace. It is vulnerable to the reformism and reactionary frameworks towards the handling on Mindanao crisis. Attaining PEACE in whatever form and essence should be stressed just to attain the cessation of hostilities. A sort of “Pax Romana” will reign but this time the Peace which is imposed.

3. Scenario 111: The GRP position weakened:

It is the situation of widespread demoralization of the AFP forces over the damaged inflicted on them. Considerable numbers of generals within the AFP and two former Defense Secretaries had expressed concerns over the limitation of the Oplan Phoenix military tactics against the MILF. As Senator Pong Biazon has admitted the failure of intelligence community that AFP under estimated the MILF position. A colonel also confirms the anti Reyes-Mercado movement within the AFP. It is now consolidating its ranks to protest Reyes-Mercado policy towards the Mindanao Crisis and attitudes towards the rank and files. Retired general Fortunato U. Abat, a veteran of Mindanao war in the 70’s has openly expressed his sentiments against the military solution of the Mindanao problem.

It is also in the face that the call for “all out Jihad” to Muslim communities gained widespread support from Philippine Muslims and even in the international Islamic communities. However, it is of course after the MILF would successfully exposed the AFP-GRP’s campaign associating them to Abu Sayyaf and the US’s CIA hands over the Abu Sayyaf would also be explained to international community.

Another feature also would justify AFP-GRP’s weakening position is the continuing backlash and division of the ruling elite and business community towards peace resolution and will oppose “all out war” in the Mindanao as well as the international community especially the Islamic world intervenes the peace talks. Prolonging the war will not be best for any business except maybe for those who are getting big commissions from the procurement of military hardware and logistics.

Bases:

a. The Islamic world particularly the OIC will definitely decide and they hope this would be at the end of June 2000 meeting at Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, to support MILF. Possibility of imposing economic embargo sanction over the AFP-GRP should it continue fights MILF. In this historical OIC meeting the minimum that the MILF can get is the support of the OIC members and the maximum will be sits membership or observer to the OIC as the representative of the Bangsa Moro replacing the disgraced Misuari’s MNLF.

b. The MILF has successfully rallied a significant number of the Bangsamoro to their cause and recognize MILF as their sole representative.

c. The peace movement would intensify while the popularity of Erap continues to dive down to the extent that the US will decide to give him up because of the US and globalization interest and neo-liberal policies is threatened.

4. Scenario 1V: The Mindanao Crisis Intensifies and War Drags on for Several Months.

This scenario will be manifested on the following:

a. The AFP-GRP would be put on the disadvantage position and the rank and files experience heighten the demoralization due to the effects of the prolonging of while the MILF changes its strategy to guerilla warfare.

b. The AFP-GRP will also change their strategy due to sharp decline of Erap’s popularity. Possibilities of widespread peoples’ protest fueled by cases of HRVs committed by the AFP and vigilante groups to the people will complicate further to Erap’s downfall. The constitutional coup will happen.

c. The MILF will return to negotiating table with big bargaining position because of the local and international support.

d. Facilitate easily the alliance of the Revolutionary forces and raised on higher level.

5. Scenario V: The Mindanao Crisis Continues and War Prolongs but Erap still in control of the Situation:

This will be manifested on the following:

a. Erap declares State of Emergency or Martial Law. It can be localized or selective.

b. Change the Constitution to accommodate MILF demands. It will also be used to the governments advantage.

c. There would be a peace talks but Erap will use the Christian groups and will disallow Islamic countries’ participation and intervention in the talks. If allowed only those Islamic countries allied to the US.

d. The US and other advanced capitalist countries give the Erap administration a full backing in financial, military and political support.

6. Scenario VI: Massive frustration and withdrawal of development agencies and investors that will result into bleak economic situation due to massive damages caused by war on human, material and environmental resources..

7. Scenario: VII: US-led Direct International Intervention:

It will be manifested on the following:

a. Mobilization of the international organization and forces like what happened in Kosovo and East Timor should the situation become uncontrollable. The visit of Secretary General Solano of the European Union (EU) is one of the obvious examples of this scenario.

b. The AFP becomes too weak to block this international intervention and therefore will be forced to agree to such a situation if only to extend its life for another day or month.

8. Scenario VIII: Proliferation of the so called “fly by night” NGO/POs:

It has been the common observation that during a crisis, the so-called “fly by night” NGO/POs or the “vultures of war” would again proliferate to take advantage of the situation. It is due to unimpressive coordination or loose networking and campaign mechanism with the genuine and locally or grassroots based NGO/POs. The suffering of the victims of war again becomes center of the industry for money making. Nevertheless, for those who faithfully sympathize with the victims, they (from the churches and business groups) blindly give their help and donation in a dole-out scheme, which the AFP-GRP wants to happen. They forget proactive measures to stop the victims’ sufferings such as actively participate in a campaign to stop the war and help in attaining the meaningful and genuine peace in Mindanao.

VI. General Guide for Action for the PEACE Now networks with coordination with the Mindanao and grassroots peace networks of Mindanao Peace Movement (MPM) and the Mindanao Peoples’ Congress for Peace and Development (MPCPD).

1. Strengthen and unify all networks of PEACE Now on the current situation and analysis of Mindanao and its impact on the Philippines as a whole.

2. Launch massive education campaign among allied organizations, the churches, the Moro peoples and the Indigenous peoples on the Whats and Whys of the Armed Conflicts in Mindanao stressing on the Interfaith and Ecumenical dialogues, so as to promote deeper understanding and help in the attaining of peoples’ unity against the neo-liberal and globalization policies and the anti-people programs sponsored by the Erap administration.

3. Launch nationally coordinated campaigns to demand for the immediate stoppage of War in Mindanao.

4. Launch a coordinated and transparent campaign on how to immediately help the victims of war, especially the children and the women thru fund raising and relief, medical and rehabilitation activities.

5. Launch a coordinated campaign on the international level on how to STOP THE WAR in Mindanao and the stoppage of continuous HRVs amongst the poor Moro, Christian and Lumad peoples because of the WAR.

6. Launch a National Summit on Peace which will focus on the Peace Building activities at the grassroots level.