Israeli forces on the border with Gaza on Sunday. Credit: Ammar Awad/Reuters

At some point during the early hours of Monday morning, when the long-delayed release of the final 20 living hostages is expected to take place, the right appears determined to repeat past mistakes in its approach to the Gaza Strip.

After every round of fighting with Hamas between 2014 and 2021 – most notably the past IDF operations Protective Edge and Guardian of the Walls – Likud governments and the army brass claimed that Israel had the upper hand and that Hamas had ended the conflict “deterred, contained and weakened.” But the truth was revealed on the holiday of Simchat Torah, October 7, two years ago.

It became clear that Hamas was not surprised by the results of these wars, which ended with something closer to a draw, but they concluded that more could be accomplished. After Guardian of the Walls, when the Israel Defense Forces boasted it had bombed and obliterated the “metro,” the Palestinian organization’s command tunnel system, they concluded in Gaza that preparations could be launched for a general offensive, which would lead to the defeat of the IDF’s Gaza Division and conquer the Israeli communities on the border.

The gamble initially succeeded, then failed. Hamas invaded the Gaza border region in huge numbers, defeated the forces defending it and engaged in a shocking massacre. But Gaza paid a devastating price: widespread destruction of its urban infrastructure by the IDF, the deaths of much of its leadership, and the unprecedented killing of an estimated 67,000 people, of whom Israel claims 20,000 were Hamas members. Over the coming days, many more bodies will likely be recovered from beneath the rubble.

Now, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s supporters are repeating the same mistake. Fed up with Netanyahu’s stalling tactics and feeling that prolonging the fighting would endanger American interests in the region, U.S. President Donald Trump forced the two sides to agree to a cease-fire and hostage deal.

The war appears to be over, but there is no reason to conclude that Israel achieved total victory over Hamas. Like Israel, Hamas had arrived at a point where it could no longer defy the United States, especially since all of its regional patrons (Qatar, Egypt, and recently Turkey) were pressuring it to end the fighting.

Palestinians retrieving aid from an aid truck in Khan Yunis, southern Gaza Strip, on Sunday. Credit: AFP/OMAR AL-QATTAA

The organization conditioned its freeing of the Israeli hostages, living and dead, not on a complete and immediate withdrawal of the IDF from Gaza but on American guarantees. That is what it got last week when Trump personally committed himself. Anyone who thinks that these are just empty words is likely to be proven wrong.

If Hamas insists on renewing hostilities with Israel, rapidly rebuilds its military infrastructure and thwarts the deployment of a multinational force in Gaza, Washington may well give Israel the green light to renew the war. But if Hamas does anything less than that, the Americans are likely to pressure Netanyahu to refrain, especially if they succeed in convincing Arab and Muslim countries to deploy their troops to the Strip.

Netanyahu’s acolytes are doing their best to ignore much of what has happened over the past few days. They would do well to pay attention to what is written in the agreement and what is not. For the past year, the messianic right and half the Likud Knesset lawmakers have been passionately discussing a far-fetched (and immoral) vision of expelling the Palestinians from Gaza and resettling the territory with Israelis. It’s not going to happen.

Ministers and journalists spoke of an Israeli military government in Gaza – that, too, will not happen. As for the destruction of Hamas, its military wing has been hit badly, and the threat to the Israeli homefront has receded. But it is Hamas members who have been showing an armed presence throughout the Strip in recent days. Likely, systematic efforts will soon begin to target the local clans that have collaborated with Israel. It is doubtful whether Hamas can, or currently wants to, regain full control of the Strip. But it still may be capable of blocking any alternative from taking root. It remembers how to instill fear.

The matter doesn’t end there. A lot of money is being brought to the table, as are big ambitions. It seems that Trump, who will travel from Israel on Monday to a regional conference in Sharm el-Sheikh, aims to relaunch the normalization process between Israel and Arab countries. Simultaneously, he wants to undertake huge infrastructure, technology and weapons projects, which will benefit both the United States and the Trump family.

But to secure Saudi participation in the plan, it appears that he will need to draw up a roadmap addressing the Palestinian issue, including a role for the Palestinian Authority. Even now, the PA is involved beyond the scenes, approving the names of the people who will serve on the council of technocrats that is supposed to govern Gaza. Meanwhile, in the background, the role of Egypt, Qatar and Turkey is growing. The Saudi-French initiative to recognize a Palestinian state provided a tailwind for Trump’s diplomatic efforts.

Netanyahu has noted, alongside the release of all the living hostages, that the IDF will remain in 53 percent of Gaza, defined by Trump’s yellow line on the maps. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who’s searching for excuses not to quit the government even though he voted against the agreement, claimed on Sunday that he wants to stay to ensure that Hamas is disarmed.

That’s the story it is selling to its base. In practice, the Americans are likely to pressure Israel to continue its withdrawal before the bodies of the dead hostages are returned. The locations of some of the bodies remain unknown, and Hamas may be tempted to delay finding them as a bargaining chip while the agreement is being implemented.

The chances of fully disarming Hamas are slim, but, on the other hand, the agreement succeeds in internationalizing the conflict in a way that previous proposals, since the collapse of the first hostage deal in December 2023, did not.

In other words, not only were opportunities missed in the past to complete a deal, but the conditions may have been better for Israel then. Since that time, 41 hostages held by Hamas were killed, as were dozens of soldiers and many more wounded. The fact that Hamas continued holding hostages in the tunnels during this period enabled it to preserve a large part of its strategic tunnel network in Gaza City and refugee camps in central Gaza because Israel avoided bombing them.

Palestinians among the destruction in Khan Yunis, southern Gaza Strip, on Sunday. Credit: AFP/OMAR AL-QATTAA

The scenes of hundreds of thousands of Gazans returning to the ruins of cities and towns with the start of the cease-fire are being presented as a victory for “sumud” (Arabic for steadfastness) and retaining Palestinian hold on the land. For Smotrich and those who envisioned ethnically cleansing Gaza, this is a bitter symbolic defeat. Yet symbolic victories do not satisfy material needs they now desperately lack. The critical question now is whether the billions of dollars promised for Gaza reconstruction will begin to flow into the Strip. This depends largely on the rapid establishment of a multinational force.

As has already been noted, Trump decided to impose an agreement – following Israel’s failed attack on Qatar – that proved decisive in ending the war. Israeli military pressure also contributed to this. It seems that the Hamas leadership in Gaza wanted to end the war alive and could no longer continue ignoring the suffering of the Gazans outside the tunnels.

Early in the war, an interview appeared in which Mousa Abu Marzouk, a senior Qatar-based Member of Hamas’ political wing, was asked why the organization wasn’t allowing ordinary Gazans to use the tunnels as shelters. He dodged the question and failed to learn from it. Last weekend, in an interview with Egyptian television, he stormed out of the studio when asked if the massacre led to the liberation of the Palestinian people. Hamas can’t celebrate a victory here either; for the Palestinians in Gaza, it was certainly a great disaster, a second Nakba.

A demonstration of weakness

Nevertheless, the agreement was not simply the result of American pressure, but also necessary from an Israeli perspective. The war had to end. Israeli society is worn out. It is exhausted and divided. These are not issues that can be resolved in a turbulent year that is expected to end with elections, but at the very least, the open wound will be closed with the return of 48 hostages from the Gaza Strip.

A protest in New York City in support of the Israeli hostages in Gaza on Sunday. Credit: AFP/CHARLY TRIBALLEAU

But, before that, the two men attended the cabinet meeting where the deal was discussed. Under the proud patriot Netanyahu, Israel is being treated as a U.S. protectorate. It began with Biden’s visit at the beginning of the war, with his envoys invited to approve the IDF’s plans on the eve of the invasion of Gaza. And now culminating with the cabinet vote on the deal in the presence of Trump’s representatives.

Parts of the visit felt more like a Tsarist-era tale of Russian officials visiting a remote Jewish shtetl.

According to reports from the cabinet meeting, National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, who voted against the deal (and yet, like Smotrich, has no intention of resigning), asked the two if they would have made peace with Hitler. His English was so poor that Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer was asked to translate.

Economy and Industry Minister Nir Barkat tried to strike a more optimistic tone, suggesting that the agreement could help revive Israel’s economy. He expressed the rather naive hope that the nation’s anger would subside and that citizens disillusioned with the government during the war would ultimately forgive and forget.

It is doubtful that Netanyahu was paying attention. When he finally spoke, he counted no less than nine fronts where Israel was still fighting. No. 8 was the home front. Deputy Minister Almog Cohen also had something to contribute to the discussion. He expressed dismay that the new head of the Shin Bet security agency, David Zini, hadn’t attended the meeting. Zini’s main task now, he said, would be to fight the protests. Cohen said the Shin Bet and the Israel Police needed to be more assertive on the streets, as he put it. “My fellow police officers are handcuffed,” he complained.

The explanation for the applause the American speakers enjoyed at Hostage Square, in contrast to the boos Netanyau’s name elicited, is simple enough. It was not simply blind political hatred. The anger of many hostage families and activists is due to the behavior of Netanyahu, that of his family and those around him over the past two years.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the UN General Assembly in New York last month. Credit: AFP/CHARLY TRIBALLEAU

Netanyahu is careful to wear a yellow hostage pin on his lapel, but in practice, he has given a cold shoulder to the hostages and their families and has shown a lack of compassion towards those who did not identify with him politically. In contrast, Witkoff and the Kushners knew how to express empathy and compassion. There is no reason to expect the families to change their attitude towards Netanyahu now that Trump has finally forced an agreement on him. The person who refused to take even minimal responsibility for the enormous disaster that occurred on his watch cannot now expect applause for the achievement.

What should worry Netanyahu is how the incident will be viewed in Washington. The U.S. media is already repeating the argument that the Israelis are not their government, and at least half of them are reluctant to accept it. The question is whether Trump, who hates losers, will see the incident as a show of weakness on Netanyahu’s part or will embrace him in the Knesset on Monday.

In any case, just before the return of the hostages, the contempt in Hostage Square seems to be a momentous one for an election year.

Amos Harel

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