Photo Credit: The Foreign Ministers of Rwanda, Olivier Nduhungirehe, and the DRC, Thérèse Kayikwamba Wagner, with Donald Trump on 27 June 2025 © DR

After leaving China to exploit the African subsoil for years, the United States is changing its policy. Particularly since during the customs tariff standoff between the two countries, China had threatened to embargo exports of rare minerals essential for American industry.

A Losing-Winning Agreement
US mediation for a peace agreement between the DRC and Rwanda fits into this framework. Felix Tshisekedi, [President of the Democratic Republic of Congo since 2019], unable to respond to attacks by the [March 23 Movement, [a rebel group active in eastern DRC] massively supported by the Rwandan army, had proposed to Trump the securing of the country in exchange for exploiting its numerous mineral riches. The latter seized the opportunity and proposed a peace agreement between the two countries ending a conflict of more than thirty years.

If the agreement signed on 27 June reaffirms the principle of DRC sovereignty, the departure of the Rwandan army from Congolese soil is conditional on the dismantling of the FDLR [Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda], an armed group arising from Hutu perpetrators of the 1994 genocide who took refuge in the DRC as part of the French military operation “Turquoise” conducted in Rwanda in 1994.

This requirement will be difficult to fulfil for the DRC armed forces who in the past have forged links with this militia. Moreover, a good part of the FDLR’s presence is located in territories occupied by M23. Finally, a possible FDLR strategy would be to integrate its men into the numerous armed militias that exist in the country.

The economic part provides that American companies will be able to exploit the DRC’s subsoil and that minerals will be processed by Rwanda and exported to the USA using the Lobito Corridor [a railway and road infrastructure connecting Angola’s Lobito port to the DRC and Zambia], a rail and road infrastructure that opens onto the Atlantic Ocean, competing with Chinese exports.

Awaiting Doha
In this agreement, most of the added value in the region would benefit Rwanda, while the DRC would be confined to being a reservoir of natural resources. This would not really change from the current situation, except that illegal transfers of Congolese minerals to Rwanda would be made official.

Many observers highlight the absence of compensation for populations who are victims of the war launched by Rwanda, for the hundreds of thousands of displaced persons, the violence suffered, house looting or village destruction. An agreement that also sanctions impunity for warlords.

On the ground, conflicts continue because the cessation of conflicts is conditional on another agreement, from Doha [Qatar’s capital, where peace negotiations are taking place] between DRC authorities and the M23 militia. The latter has its own demands in terms of integrating its forces into the national army and securing its economic activities and land properties.The question is also whether American companies will invest in an environment that remains unstable and poorly secured.

Paul Martial