Smoke rises over Iran’s state TV building in Tehran after Israeli airstrike, last weekCredit: Majid Asgaripour/Reuters

As with much else in the extraordinary war between Israel and Iran, the announcement of the cease-fire on Tuesday morning came in the spirit and style of Donald Trump. The U.S. president posted in the middle of the night, Israel time: “Israel and Iran came to me, almost simultaneously, and said:”PEACE!“... Both Nations will see tremendous LOVE, PEACE, AND PROSPERITY in their futures.”

Once again, real life is lived like a reality TV show. If not for the tragic context – including the deadly direct hit on a building in Be’er Sheva that took the lives of four people during one of Iran’s final barrages – the moment might have been laughable.

For nearly two hours, until shortly after 7 A.M., when the cease-fire went into effect, Iran continued to fire limited salvos of missiles at Israel. The continued attacks underscored the weakening of Iran’s offensive capabilities, which struggled to carry out large-scale, coordinated strikes, but also exposed holes in Israel’s defensive systems.

At around 10:30 A.M., two additional Iranian missiles were launched and intercepted over Haifa and northern Israel. In response, the defense minister and army chief of staff asserted that the incident constituted a cease-fire violation and vowed a harsh Israeli response.

Be’er Sheva missile strike site after Iranian attack, on Tuesday.Credit: Eliahu Hershkovitz

Trump expressed outrage at the threat to attack Iran and urged Israel to “bring your pilots home, now!” The president was not satisfied with that. He also demanded in a phone call with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the attack be called off. The Israeli Air Force pilots, who were already in Iranian airspace and close to their targets, were given last-minute orders to attack a radar installation in northern Iran, as a symbolic target, instead of attacking the heart of Tehran.

Unusually for Trump, he even attacked Israel publicly. “I’m not happy with them. I’m not happy with Iran either, but I’m really unhappy if Israel is going out this morning,” he said, saying that both countries violated the cease-fire. Trump believed that the recent Israeli bombings of Iran, in the hours before the cease-fire, were excessive, and there is something to this claim. The Israel Defense Forces pressured the political echelon and received approval for massive strikes in a last-ditch effort to try and destroy as much of Iran’s capabilities as possible before the fighting ended.

Monday’s missile fire on the U.S. military base in Qatar preceded the attack on Israel and appeared to be part of a prearranged choreography, allowing Iran to retaliate for the American bombing of its Fordow nuclear facility on Saturday night. Trump, in his typically blunt manner, even thanked Iran for providing advance warning before launching missiles toward U.S. troops. In contrast, Iranian state television told viewers that the Americans had begged for a cease-fire following the damage they suffered in Qatar. One wonders if even a single Iranian citizen believes that.

Trump’s post on Truth Social following Israel–Iran cease-fire announcement

The 12 days of fighting with Iran – unlike the previous 615 days of the war that began with Hamas’ October 7 terrorist attack – are shaping up to be a significant success. Israel dealt Iran a powerful and unexpected blow, causing major damage to its nuclear facilities, missile stockpiles and launchers, and command-and-control networks, from the Revolutionary Guards to the nuclear program.

The American strike on Fordow completed a coordinated assault involving both Israel and the world’s most powerful military. U.S. support was demonstrated through action, not words.

Sources in Israel briefing diplomatic and political reporters expressed strong optimism concerning the damage done to Iran’s nuclear program. Some spoke of a complete loss of Iran’s uranium-enrichment capacity and the ability to convert it into weapons. Others went so far as to claim that the program had been completely destroyed – a claim that, as far as is known, is not accepted for now by Western intelligence officials.

Cease-fire without an agreement?

The bombings not only set back Iran’s nuclear project, but also established a new balance of deterrence. The regime in Tehran had invested hundreds of billions of dollars in its nuclear and missile programs, and in supporting terror organizations throughout the Middle East. That strategy now appears to have failed. After the Israeli Air Force succeeded in neutralizing large portions of Iran’s air defense, the country was left fully exposed, and its key sites were severely hit.

Over the long term, even the regime’s internal stability may begin to erode. Despite the open talk of regime change voiced in recent days in Jerusalem and Washington, that does not appear to be Trump’s top priority. Judging by his recent, slightly more consistent statements, the president is intent on ending the war quickly and is open to resuming talks with representatives of Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, last week.Credit: Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/WANA/Reuters

In expectation that the cease-fire holds, as seems likely given Trump’s forceful remarks on Tuesday, the question is whether the White House can reach a binding agreement that imposes far tougher demands on Iran and includes clear enforcement mechanisms in the event of further violations. Experience shows that the regime will probably try to prolong negotiations for as long as possible, and won’t hesitate to resort to deception and evasion to avoid international oversight.

Another possibility is an informal arrangement of “quiet in exchange for quiet,” under which Israel, and perhaps the United States, would strike again if the cease-fire were violated. But without a detailed agreement, what constitutes a violation? Can Israel act in response to any renewed Iranian activity in the nuclear field? Can restrictions be enforced again to prevent full-scale war? And what is the fate of those 450 kilos of 60 percent-enriched uranium?

And what did Trump demand?

About two hours after the cease-fire took effect, Netanyahu released a detailed statement in which he declared that “an immediate dual existential threat – both nuclear and ballistic” had been lifted and that the war had ended after Israel achieved all of its goals. He warned of a forceful response to any Iranian violations.

What Netanyahu did not say is what he had agreed with Trump in the conversations leading up to the cease-fire. Did the president (belatedly) demand an end to the war in Gaza, a full withdrawal of the IDF in exchange for the release of all hostages and bodies, or perhaps a willingness on Israel’s part to make progress on the Palestinian issue in return for normalization with Saudi Arabia?

Trump and Netanyahu at the White House, in April.Credit: Kevin Mohatt/Reuters

Trump has not abandoned his dream of a new regional alliance, one that includes Israel and the Sunni states of the Gulf, and perhaps also earns him a Nobel Peace Prize.

On paper, the opportunity is there. It may even appeal to Netanyahu, by giving him a chance to end the prolonged hostage crisis and stop the bloodshed in Gaza. But it also depends on how Netanyahu assesses his own political position. His frequent public appearances, visits to the sites of missile strikes and cautious return to television appearances (so far only with friendly broadcasters) suggest he is weighing an early election.

It is difficult to call elections while the national wound surrounding the hostages remains open. And despite what Netanyahu’s supporters are trying to project, the success of June 13 does not erase the stain of October 7. The achievements against Iran are impressive and would not have happened without Netanyahu’s determination and Trump’s backing. But they cannot obscure the recent past, especially if the prime minister continues to refuse to accept any responsibility for what happened in the Gaza border communities and continues to signal his intent to launch a new assault on Israel’s democratic institutions.

Gaza remains a bloody, painful sore that will continue to exact a heavy price from us due to the government’s unwillingness to strive for an end. While Netanyahu tries to sell Israelis a new story of total victory – this time on the Iranian front – Gaza will remain there, with the hostages, the dead, and a futile military campaign that is costing many Palestinian civilian lives without bringing an end to the conflict.

Amos Harel