Election poster for Demokraatit in Nuuk, Greenland, March 11, 2025. IMAGO/Ritzau Scanpix

Enjoying a swing of over 21 percent, Demokraatit obtained 29.9 percent of all votes cast – more than three times their result in Greenland’s last parliamentary elections in 2021. At the same time, the pro-independence centrist party Naleraq doubled their results from the 2021 elections, winning 24.5 percent of the vote. Meanwhile, support for the social democratic party Siumut crumbled from 29.5 to just 14.7 percent, and the left-wing Inuit Ataqatigiit (IA) – the party of current prime minister Múte B Egede – was also dealt a heavy defeat, dropping from 36.6 to 21.4 percent.

The head of Demokraatit, Jens-Frederik Nielsen, will now be tasked with forming a new government. While Demokraatit and Naleraq will have a solid majority in parliament between them – 18 of the Inatsisartut’s 31 seats – it remains to be seen whether the two parties can work together. While it is also pro-independence, Demokraatit prefers a much slower path towards full separation from Denmark than Naleraq, which wants to break away as soon as possible.

Fishery decides the election

In a time of geopolitical turmoil and overt threats from Donald Trump to make Greenland a part of the USA, Greenlandic voters have indicated their preference for a party whose electoral campaign focused heavily on domestic policy.

Fishery has long been Greenland’s most important industry, and fish make up 95 percent of Greenland’s exports. In 2024, the outgoing left-wing government enacted a reform of the fishing industry in order to prevent overfishing by capping quotas in offshore fisheries. As well as impacting larger fishing companies, the harsher fishing quota also threatened the livelihood of many small fishing entrepreneurs – especially in the country’s smallest, most remote villages.

IA’s minister for natural resources, Naaja Nathanielsen, has already recognised that the fishery reform was a factor in the party’s defeat. Demokraatit, on the other hand, was opposed to the reform from the beginning, and the voters seem to have rewarded their opposition. This may be bad news for the fish and marine ecosystems off the coasts of Greenland, but in the short term, it will be good news for a lot of small fishers and the communities that depend on them.

Public welfare

Demokraatit also advocates a liberal economic policy, and its victory signifies a shift in Greenlandic politics, where left-wing parties – particularly Siumut – have traditionally supported a large public welfare sector. Demokraatit’s campaign focused instead on the private sector and the need to build a solid economic foundation before pushing on for independence.

While Demokraatit are economic liberals, however, their liberalism has softened in recent years, and the party’s campaign platform stresses the need for a strong public sector to combat Greenland’s social issues. Indeed, the election can also be seen as a protest against government policies that failed to prevent the erosion of Greenland’s public sector, where teachers, pedagogues, doctors and home care assistants are few and far between, can mostly be found only in Greenland’s larger towns, and are often Danes, working in Greenland temporarily.

What will happen now?

As the head of what is now clearly the largest party in Greenland, Demokraatit’s 33-year-old leader Jens-Frederik Nielsen (a former badminton star) will try to form a new government. But it is still an open question as to what that government will look like.

One possibility is for Demokraatit and Naleraq to go into coalition. This would be an abrupt change from the sitting government and could be considered a clear protest against the status quo. Such an alliance would be difficult, however, as the two parties’ stances on independence are simply too far apart. In the words of Danish journalist Pernille Stensgaard, “voters who feared Trump the most could vote for Demokraatit, while those most frustrated with Denmark could opt for Naleraq.”

Another possibility is an IA-Demokraatit government. Once again, the two parties may seem strange bedfellows, but they share a focus on Greenland’s smaller communities and their ascendancy could represent a complete break with the traditional government party, social democratic Siumut. In terms of both economic and – especially – environmental policy, however, the two parties remain quite far apart.

A third, if less likely, possibility is that all parties of the Inatsisartut, except for Naleraq, form a broad national coalition, reflecting a state of national crisis in Greenland’s sovereignty. All four of these parties (IA, Siumut, Demokraatit and Atassut) have criticised Donald Trump’s possessive overtures (and implied threats) towards Greenland, whereas Naleraq have indicated an openness to discussion with Trump.

The independence scale

At this point, it is useful to quickly look at the views of the Greenlandic parties represented in the Inatsisartut on the issue of independence. Of the five parties in parliament, only one of them – the conservative Atassut – is fully against independence. The others sit on a spectrum, ranging from strongly pro-independence to much more cautious and gradual in their approach.

1. Naleraq: Wants independence as soon as possible and a clean cut from Denmark.
2. Siumut: Wants independence but not as soon as Naleraq.
3. IA: Similar to Siumut, but has been less vocal on the issue (may change if they become an opposition party).
4. Demokraatit: Similar to both IA and Siumut, but preferring a much longer, slower path to independence.
5. Atassut: Wants to remain a part of the Kingdom of Denmark.

Danish reactions

In Copenhagen, reactions to the Greenlandic election have been largely positive. Former foreign minister and current head of the centrist social liberal party Radikale Venstre (whose Danish name, rather confusingly, means “Radical Left”), Martin Lidegaard, has expressed his optimism that the Kingdom of Denmark will now remain intact in all parts. Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, on the other hand, has been more cautious as she congratulated Demokraatit on its strong result, while she and the rest of the Danish government will now await what government will be formed in Greenland.

While the results of the elections represent a landslide in Greenlandic politics, it is worth noting – as indeed Danish politicians have – that about 75 percent of the electorate voted for parties that do not want independence right away. So, while opinion polls show that independence remains more popular than ever in Greenland, public support has gone largely to parties that prefer a more cautious path towards independence. An independence that may, in the end, still involve some sort of affiliation to, or association with, Denmark.

Trump’s ghost still looms

While the strongly pro-independence Naleraq – whose member of Inatsisartut Kuno Fencker was present at Donald Trump’s inauguration – doubled its vote at this election, the much more gradualist Demokraatit more than tripled its own support. For his part, Demokraatit’s leader Jens-Frederik-Nielsen has said that Donald Trump’s desire to take over Greenland was “completely unacceptable”, and that it was “disgusting” to talk about the people of Greenland as trade goods. It is also reassuring that the chairpersons of all five parties in the Inatsisartut told the media that they do not trust Trump.

It is unlikely that Trump will care about that, however. On his social media, Trump recently promised that he would invest “BILLIONS OF DOLLARS” in Greenland, telling Greenlanders he would “MAKE YOU RICH”. While no official American reactions to the election have arrived, it is hard to imagine that the election results will interrupt Trump’s Arctic offensive, which will continue to interfere with Greenlandic politics, and will pose an inescapable challenge to whichever parties form the new government.

Jonas Neivelt is editor at the Danish left-wing online magazine Solidaritet.dk.