I entered political life on the left in 1989. It was a time of deep crisis in the Soviet Union and the beginning of a painful process of neoliberal reforms. There were no Communist Party members in my family, but my family had socialist views and I started reading Marxist literature early on.

I saw that after a short period of democracy, after the fall of the Soviet Union, a dictatorship would be established in our country. There is no democracy when property is concentrated in the hands of oligarchs.

I organised meetings against the neoliberal reforms. I also organised strikes in factories and helped file lawsuits in defence of social and democratic rights. In 1994, my compatriots supported me for the first time in the regional legislative elections. In 1999, I was elected to the State Duma and I worked as a member of parliament for 30 years. Of course, we had problems with electoral fraud, but a broad grassroots network of trade unionists, housing activists, animal rights activists and others enabled us to successfully overcome these obstacles.

It is important to note that I have been based in the city and region of Astrakhan, a multi-ethnic southern region on the Caspian Sea. A third of the one million people living there are Muslim. Astrakhan is an ancient trading city with a tradition of dialogue between people of different ethnicities and religions. My experience of representing the people of Astrakhan and being an activist in the region has been important for my own political development and outlook.

But many things changed in 2022: when Russia invaded Ukraine, the Putin government relied heavily on conscripts and recruits from the military, including Astrakhan. Over four thousand men from my region were sent to fight in Ukraine. Today, more than six hundred have been killed. This imperialist invasion changed the policy of Russia and Astrakhan. How do we explain what happened to Russian society and what can we expect next?

The anti-war party

In general, Russian opinion polls should be viewed sceptically. Public opinion polls are conducted under conditions where open opposition to the war carries the risk of serious fines and even criminal prosecution. Over 20,000 Russians have been detained or fined and hundreds have been sent to prison for years because of their anti-war views. Those who, like me, are labelled ’foreign agents’ lose the opportunity to work and their property can be confiscated by the state. Nevertheless, the results of national opinion polls on current attitudes towards the invasion and war can be very useful in understanding the political dynamics in Russia.

Before looking at the polls, it is also necessary to understand something about the different bodies that conduct them. One example is Tzargrad, a holding company owned by a notorious far-right oligarch, Konstantin Malofeev, who runs the Tsargrad TV channel. Malofeev is a right-wing Russian nationalist who works closely with the dictatorship and supports the construction of prisons and the execution of dissidents. He has founded groups such as the Russian Society of Philanthropists for the Protection of Motherhood and Childhood and the Safe Internet League, an organisation that promotes censorship.

In April 2023, just over a year after the Russian invasion, the pro-regime, right-wing Tzargrad showed that only 37.6 per cent of respondents “fully support” the invasion of Ukraine. “Partial support” was 15.6 per cent, giving a total support of 50.3 per cent. A total of 35 per cent opposed the invasion and the war (26.5 per cent fully opposed and 9.1 per cent conditionally opposed).

A third of respondents also supported the return of the conquered territories to Ukraine and the reinstatement of borders from January 2022. Considering that the Russian Criminal Code promises 4 years in prison for damaging the “territorial integrity of the Russian Federation” and that the state authorities call for the “reunification of this country with the motherland”, the respondents’ anti-war answers were truly courageous actions.

Moreover, another 15-20 percent were in favour of giving the occupied territories back to Ukraine if this idea was supported by the head of state. And it’s not only Tsargrad that shows such data. The Levada Centre is a polling and research NGO that has itself been declared a “foreign agent” by the Russian state. It estimates that the level of anti-war sentiment is as high as 34 per cent. The state-owned VCIOM puts opposition to the war at around 20 per cent. In the autumn of 2023, the Nezygar online channel, which at one time was closely linked to the Putin administration, found that in retrospect, 41% of Russians would not have continued the so-called “special military operation” in Ukraine.

After reviewing all the polls, I believe that about 30 per cent of the Russian population is against this war. It’s not only liberals or young people, but also people on the left and of all ages. Even if it’s not a majority, it’s a significant opposition. Even in conditions where they do not have the opportunity to speak openly about their position, this group has proven to be stable.

These estimates are confirmed by the recent presidential elections in spring 2024. My good friend, former MP Boris Nadejdin, announced his intention to participate in the election campaign and he made a proposal for a ceasefire. Before this, he was not a well-known politician, but after three weeks his support was at ten per cent and growing. Naturally, his candidacy was quickly declared illegitimate by the Central Electoral Commission and he was removed from the ballot paper.

Military party

The other side of the coin to the 30 per cent who oppose the war is the broad, sometimes proto-fascist, support for the invasion of Ukraine. In the first days of the invasion, I was shocked. All the country’s social networks (with the exception of Facebook, which is used more by opposition forces and those critical of Putin’s regime) were filled with messages from thousands of citizens about the takeover of Ukraine, the usefulness of killing prisoners and the rightness of destroying cities and villages. Some of my own friends thought it was rational to kill people in other countries and encouraged it.

There was a wave of hatred towards the US, Western governments and the West in general. At least 100,000 Russians posted comments under a social media post by Joe Biden about US support for Ukraine. These comments were a mixture of threats and joy. It wasn’t just about Ukraine. When the invasion began, there was a common discussion that if only the conquest of Ukraine succeeded, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Moldova and/or the Baltic countries would be next in line. It was openly discussed on soc
ial media, on evening TV shows, on the pages of major newspapers and especially in parliament. During a meeting of the Duma committee, a senator I know well said that many small countries have no right to sovereignty.

Every evening we could watch TV programmes about nuclear attacks on Berlin, London, Paris, Baku, Warsaw and, of course, American cities.

After three years of war, this sentiment has faded, but even though the invasion of Ukraine has proved to be long, failed and bloody, it has not gone away. How did we get here? Why was such talk possible? Which people in Russia supported this and how many people were poisoned by such cannibalistic ideology?

Let’s return to the polls. Tzargrad estimated firm support for the war at 37 per cent. But in fact, it’s half that.

The notorious far-right “philosopher” Aleksandr Dugin writes that only 20 per cent of Russians dream of taking Kyiv or all of Ukraine. The “foreign agent” Levada Centre puts this figure at 20 to 25 percent. VCIOM, which is again close to power, only comes to 10 to 15 per cent. Like the anti-war stance, the rabid pro-imperialist stance does not represent the majority of the population, but they are not a marginal part of society. It’s a pretty big group.

They are the people of war. We are talking predominantly, but not exclusively, about men in the older age groups. What motivates them? What is it that they miss? Why do they want to kill people in a neighbouring country and also in other countries?

We are approaching a very difficult question. Researchers from the Levada Centre have published a two-volume research study on the psychology of Russian society. They write about the challenges that alienated individuals face when confronted with a powerful state that can very easily destroy individual lives. They analyse the systematic suppression of any form of self-organisation in Russia, including free trade unions, environmental initiatives, homeowners’ associations and even grassroots actions in memory of the heroes of World War II.

In this world of broken horizontal communication, individuals cannot be sure of their own future. This leads to both disorientation and disillusionment. But the state offers a simple answer: hate. Like a TV switch, the targets of hate have changed for decades: liberals, gays, Ukrainians, foreign workers, atheists, homeless dogs and their defenders, Azerbaijanis, again gays, again Ukrainians, again foreign workers and always the West. Sometimes China. The enemy on the doorstep? Democracy? Under these conditions, the country is turning into a besieged fortress. It’s a dangerous Western influence designed for fools. The forces of the state claim that there is no real democracy anywhere. They call it a poison that poisons the brain.

What about friendship between peoples? Such a notion is dismissed as an illusion, a mystification, a form of hypocrisy. They claim that the Russians were killed by savages in Central Asia and the South Caucasus. It doesn’t matter that it was 40 years ago, what’s the difference? Concern about corruption? Recognising that the world is not perfect, they claim that the fight against corruption is only a specific tool in the struggle for power and conclude that all politicians are the same and that it is the same everywhere.

Therefore, they claim, there is no difference between countries and political systems. It is considered extremely stupid to discuss the social experiences of other societies. This is the logic: slaves like us live there. But at least our elite has a national culture (and the top sometimes gives us some advantages, some means), while foreigners want to seize our natural resources and convert us to homosexuality.

It seems like a caricature, but I have always encountered the same argument. It’s a very simple and coherent system of views, no matter how cynical and hateful it is. And that is the basis for supporting the war on the world.

We must also not forget the money involved. If “one man is like a wolf to another” (as an old Russian saying goes), and fighting the enemy is a source of pride, why not take the money and join a war? Wages in Russia are very low. In my city, $500 a month is considered a decent income. Many people live on only $300, and pensioners typically only get $200. But if someone signs a contract with the Ministry of Defence, they get $2,000 a month and from $10,000 to $30,000 in first bonus (depending on the region they are recruited from). In addition, their dependents have $60,000 in case of death and their children can attend university without fees and exams. Decent conditions!

Wagner, the famous private military company, has a cynical slogan: “Nothing is personal, we got paid”. Recently they organised a “patriotic lesson” in a Russian school under this banner.

The party of conformists

Of course, most people don’t want to have problems with the state, but they don’t want anything to do with the war either. They support a “special military operation”, but they will undoubtedly support peace.

They are convinced that they have no chance of influencing the decisions of the authorities, so they formally accept all instructions from the top. In reality, they only want peace of mind. This contradiction was clearly visible during the first wave of mobilisation in the autumn of 2022. The state called up 300,000 soldiers, but another 500,000 fled Russia. After this experience, the Kremlin never resorted to such risky tools again. 62 per cent of respondents understood or even supported the deserters. It was a cold dip for the war party.

Now only 20 per cent of Russians are against peace with Ukraine. The conformist majority wants a normal life without giving up “new regions”, but also without new conquests. The head of the pro-government VCIOM says: “Most Russians do not want to take Kyiv. If they had their way, they would not have launched a military operation.” And further: “Most delegate the task of formulating peace terms to the president: you decide what the terms should be and tell us when it’s time to make peace. We will support you.”

The salaries of military volunteers are constantly rising, which is direct evidence of the state’s problems with its military initiatives.

Deep division without deep crisis

Polls show that the relationship between the three groups described above is very stable. It hasn’t changed in three years. Why is this the case?

Firstly, despite expectations, the standard of living is stable. Some groups have less income - especially pensioners, public sector, education and health workers - while others are better off. The devaluation of the ruble and fierce anti-immigrant policies have resulted in the number of foreign workers falling from 9 to 6.5 million people. In addition, 1.5 million people are fighting on the front lines and around 0.8 million people have left the country. At the same time, in 2024 alone, at least $75 billion was poured into the military-industrial complex. There is a labour shortage and wages for some sections of the working class are really growing. For example, Gazprom workers in my region now earn twice as much as before the war. Prices are rising, but wages are rising faster. Not for everyone, but still.

Secondly, the fight at the front is a question of volunteers. Of course, we should not forget the 300,000 conscripts, but 70 per cent of the men currently in Ukraine have made a decision to enlist. Therefore, in the minds of Russians, their injury or death is not linked to their own fate or that of their relatives. It is the choice of the frontline soldiers at no risk to others.

Russians (so far) live a normal, peaceful life. It is very important to understand this. The choice between war and peace now is not a choice between calm and misery. It is a moral choice. The situation will change in the near future - the sanctions trap will work - but not right now.

Calm is deceptive

The war against Ukraine and the possibility of peace is considered Putin’s property and only a part of Russian society. As long as Putin is president - and he will be as long as he lives - this war will continue. The reason lies within Russia: Putin does not have a positive programme for the country. External conflicts are the basis of his power. It’s a way to consolidate the elite and control the people. Putin’s nuclear threats seem to have subsided and been postponed for now. Perhaps the war with Ukraine will enter a smouldering phase. But as long as Putin rules Russia, the history of external conflicts will continue.

After Putin - and Russian history has shown this - we will see big changes. I am sure that the authorities will favour restoring relations with the West. Trade brings more benefits than war. The historical events after Stalin and Tsar Nicholas I clearly showed this truth. And Putin understands it. His answer is to place the veterans of the “special military operation” in parliament and other state institutions. We see the consistent indoctrination of children - not just teenagers, but even small children in kindergartens. The Overton window of what is acceptable has become very wide (and wild).

According to various estimates, between 18 percent (RussianField company) and 34 percent (Levada Centre) of respondents consider a nuclear attack on Ukraine possible. Furthermore, 64 percent believe that a nuclear war could be won by Russia (RussianField company).

Until recently, this was completely unthinkable. In the Soviet Union during the Brezhnev era and for the next 40 years, nuclear war was considered an absolute evil and the end of the human race. Such changes in the mass perception of Russian society create a threat to everyone’s future, including, of course, Russia’s. Russia has the largest stockpile of A-bombs - around 6,000. (In comparison, the US has 5,400, China 350, France 290 and the UK 225).

One of the reasons I was declared a “foreign agent” in Russia and stripped of my civil rights was my public statements against this madness. Of course, even the current Russian leadership will not make a decision to use nuclear weapons, but they are creating a culture and conditions for future generations of the Russian ruling class to consider this as a normal working scenario.

The picture I have painted is challenging, but not without a basis for building resistance against the madness and against the forces of war and destruction. Today we need solidarity from all progressive forces and resistance to reaction. We must focus on educating people because the current regime of imperialist ’greatness’ may cost untold more than it did 80 years ago.

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Oleg Shein

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