Consumed by unprecedented violence at the hands of drug trafficking, Ecuador is following the autocratic path of Nayib Bukele’s El Salvador after the “comfortable electoral victory” of Daniel Noboa, the young far-right president born in Miami who has militarised the country under the pretext of waging an “internal war” against organised crime. Progressive candidate Luisa González, who was poised for victory in the second round of the presidential elections, has alleged fraud and demanded a recount of the votes.

At the helm of the right-wing National Democratic Action (ADN), 37-year-old Noboa has obtained 56% of the votes compared to 44% for the Citizens’ Revolution candidate, according to data from the National Electoral Council (CNE), with 95% of the ballots counted. In the first electoral round held in February, Noboa and González were tied with 44% of the votes. Although participation increased by three points in the second round, it is striking that the opposition obtained the same result despite the agreement reached at the end of March with the indigenous movement, which garnered 5% of the votes in the first round. From his exile in Belgium, former president Rafael Correa (2007-2017), founder of Citizens’ Revolution, has joined the allegations of electoral fraud.

Noboa won the first round by only 16,000 votes over González. The third contender at that time was Leónidas Iza of the Pachakutik Movement, with 5.25%. Iza, a leader historically opposed to Correa’s movement, made it clear from the outset that his votes could not in any case go towards supporting Noboa’s far-right government. At the end of March, a programmatic agreement of 25 points was finalised between Citizens’ Revolution, Pachakutik, and the Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities of Ecuador (Conaie). While González was signing the Agreement for Life with the indigenous movement, Noboa was seen in Miami with Donald Trump. Concerned about the direction of polls in the final stretch of the electoral campaign, the leader deployed an extensive media campaign to try to discredit González, accusing her of being willing to de-dollarise the Ecuadorian economy.

The Richest Family in Ecuador

Daniel Noboa won the elections two years ago by default. Son of the richest man in the country—magnate Álvaro Noboa—the young MP was not among the main presidential aspirants. It was a tragic event, the assassination of journalist and presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio, presumably at the hands of drug traffickers, that distorted an electoral campaign marked by violence. Against all odds, Noboa made it to the second round and, with the support of the entire conservative spectrum and big business, defeated Luisa González and became president to complete the term of another right-wing leader, Guillermo Lasso, who resigned early amid serious corruption allegations. In this year and a half, Noboa has been unable to curb the violence gripping the country since Mexican and Colombian cartels arrived in Ecuador due to its privileged geographical location and the lack of control by post-Correa neoliberal governments (Lenín Moreno and Lasso) over money laundering.

In the final stretch of the campaign, the leader pulled out of his hat an agreement with Blackwater, a group of mercenaries internationally denounced for their abuses and hired by Noboa to win his “internal war” against drug trafficking within the framework of the so-called Phoenix Plan, the security strategy approved by his government. The leader of this band of privateers, Erik Prince, campaigned through institutional media (something prohibited in Ecuador) asking for votes for Noboa and warning that Ecuador was risking in the elections becoming a new Venezuela or betting on the fight against drug trafficking.

In this context of militarisation, Noboa encountered an unexpected “black swan”, the case of “the four from Malvinas”. Four young Afro-Ecuadorians from the Las Malvinas neighbourhood in Guayaquil were murdered in December. They had gone to play a football match and were intercepted by security forces. Their bodies later appeared near a military field, riddled with bullets and showing signs of torture. Although the government blamed drug gangs for the crime, evidence points to state security forces. The case has shocked a society that has long lived in fear of going out on the streets, both because of gang violence and that of the Police and Army. A constitutional change approved by a large majority in a referendum during Noboa’s term gives the military the power to support the police in internal security tasks. Ecuador is the most violent country in Latin America, with 39 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants in 2024.

Militarisation and Corruption

The militarisation of the country has been coupled with government corruption. The Noboa family has allegedly benefited from lucrative public contracts, according to reports from the independent Ecuadorian press. And one of the clan’s companies, banana producer Noboa Trading, has even been linked to a cocaine trafficking case. The journalist who exposed this connection, Andrés Durán, has been forced into exile in Colombia after receiving threats. “This is the first documented case in Ecuador’s history in which a presidential family would be involved with cocaine trafficking,” Durán told Raya magazine.

Another scandal that shook the final stretch of the campaign was the revelation made by Verónica Sarauz, widow of Fernando Villavicencio, the presidential candidate assassinated two years ago during the campaign. Sarauz accused the Attorney General, Diana Salazar, of pressuring her at that time to accuse Correa’s movement of being behind the attack, assuring her that she had the testimony of a protected witness. That accusation was decisive for Noboa’s victory over Luisa González in the second round: “I want to say with absolute clarity that behind Fernando’s assassination there is not only politics, but drug trafficking, high-ranking National Police officials, and financial powers that launder dirty money in Ecuador”. Villavicencio’s widow denounced a “perverse” complicity between Noboa and the State Attorney General to cover up her husband’s killers.

After Noboa’s re-election, a horizon of uncertainty opens in Ecuador. Correa’s movement and the indigenous movement together have one more seat than the ruling party in Congress. But Noboa has already shown his lack of respect for the institutional nature of the legislative power. The impunity of the presidential family and the regime of repression imposed by the leader are unequivocal signs that the country is heading towards a sort of autocracy similar to that of El Salvador, where Bukele has trampled on the human rights of thousands of citizens under the cover of the fight against drug trafficking. In this anti-democratic transition, El Salvador and Ecuador have managed to install the trap of security at any cost and are shaping up as the two main autocratic poles in Latin America.

César Calero
Source: Resumen Latinoamericano.