Thus the mass evacuation of residents to Russia and a mobilisation of reservists ordered by Donetsk Peoples Republic and the Luhansk Peoples Republic leaders as well as the all-out media blitz to smear the Ukrainians as the provokers of war.

The Russian State Duma’s resolution on 15 February asking Putin to recognise the state independence of the separatist statelets makes sense now as part of a new end game. Russia abandons Minsk, gives up hope in using the statelets as levers inside Ukraine and will use them more decisively to escalate war against it. Discussions between Russia and the USA on wider issues of disarmament in Europe will be decoupled from the issue of Ukraine’s future as Russia will insist that it is its own prerogative to decide, not for the USA. Germany and France might be more willing to co-operate if the USA is pushed out the door.

Marko Bojcun

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